Dua, R. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2021

Optimal dynamic incentive scheduling for Hawk-Dove evolutionary games

The Hawk-Dove mathematical game offers a paradigm of the trade-offs associated with aggressive and passive behaviors. When two (or more) populations of players (animals, insect populations, countries in military conflict, economic competitors, microbial communities, populations of co-evolving tumor cells, or reinforcement learners adopting different strategies) compete, their success or failure can be measured by their frequency in the population (successful behavior is reinforced, unsuccessful behavior is not), and the system is governed by the replicator dynamical system. We develop a time-dependent optimal-adaptive control theory for this nonlinear dynamical system in which the payoffs of the Hawk-Dove payoff matrix are dynamically altered (dynamic incentives) to produce (bang-bang) control schedules that (i) maximize the aggressive population at the end of time T, and (ii) minimize the aggressive population at the end of time T. These two distinct time-dependent strategies produce upper and lower bounds on the outcomes from all strategies since they represent two extremizers of the cost function using the Pontryagin maximum (minimum) principle. We extend the results forward to times nT (n = 1, ..., 5) in an adaptive way that uses the optimal value at the end of time nT to produce the new schedule for time (n + 1)T. Two special schedules and initial conditions are identified that produce absolute maximizers and minimizers over an arbitrary number of cycles for 0 [≤] T [≤] 3. For T > 3, our optimum schedules can drive either population to extinction or fixation. The method described can be used to produce optimal dynamic incentive schedules for many different applications in which the 2 x 2 replicator dynamics is used as a governing model.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2021

Are adaptive chemotherapy schedules robust? A three-strategy stochastic evolutionary game theory model

We investigate the robustness of adaptive chemotherapy schedules over repeated cycles and a wide range of tumor sizes. We introduce a non-stationary stochastic three-component fitness-dependent Moran process to quantify the variance of the response to treatment associated with multidrug adaptive schedules that are designed to mitigate chemotherapeutic resistance in an idealized (well-mixed) setting. The finite cell (N tumor cells) stochastic process consists of populations of chemosensitive cells, chemoresistant cells to drug 1, and chemoresistant cells to drug 2, and the drug interactions can be synergistic, additive, or antagonistic. First, the adaptive chemoschedule is determined by using the N [->] {infty} limit of the finite-cell process (i.e. the adjusted replicator equations) which is constructed by finding closed treatment response loops (which we call evolutionary cycles) in the three component phase-space. The schedules that give rise to these cycles are designed to manage chemoresistance by avoiding competitive release of the resistant cell populations. To address the question of how these cycles are likely to perform in practice over large patient populations with tumors across a range of sizes, we then consider the statistical variances associated with the approximate stochastic cycles for finite N, repeating the idealized adaptive schedule over multiple periods. For finite cell populations, the error distributions remain approximately multi-Gaussian in the principal component coordinates through the first three cycles, with variances increasing exponentially with each cycle. As the number of cycles increases, the multi-Gaussian nature of the distribution breaks down due to the fact that one of the three subpopulations typically saturates the tumor (competitive release) resulting in treatment failure. This suggests that to design an effective and repeatable adaptive chemoschedule in practice will require a highly accurate tumor model and accurate measurements of the subpopulation frequencies or the errors will quickly (exponentially) degrade its effectiveness, particularly when the drug interactions are synergistic. Possible ways to extend the efficacy of the stochastic cycles in light of the computational simulations are discussed. Prepared for Special IssueUnderstanding the Evolutionary Dynamics and Ecology of Cancer Treatment Resistance, Ed. D. Basanta, Cancers (2021)

biophysics↗