Biology subjects

Drouet-Hoguet, N.

Publications and source records attributed to Drouet-Hoguet, N..

2 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2023

Bringing circuit theory into spatial occupancy models to assess landscape connectivity

Connectivity shapes species distribution across fragmented landscapes. Assessing landscape resistance to dispersal is challenging because dispersal events are rare and difficult to detect especially for elusive species. To address these issues, spatial occupancy models have been developed to integrate the resistance surface concept of landscape ecology and model patch occupancy dynamics through colonization and extinction while accounting for imperfect species detection. However, the most recent approach is based on least-cost path distances which assume that individuals disperse along the optimal route. Here, we develop a new spatial occupancy model that incorporates commute distances derived from circuit theory to model dispersal across sites. Our approach allows for explicit estimation of landscape connectivity and direct measure of uncertainty from detection/non-detection data. To illustrate our approach, we study the recolonisation of two carnivores in France, and quantify the degree to which rivers facilitate Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) dispersal and highways impede Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) recolonisation. Overall, spatial occupancy models provide a flexible framework to acccommodate any distance metric designed to align with species dispersal ecology. Open Research StatementData and code used in this research are available on Zenodo at https://zenodo.org/record/8376577

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Eurasian lynx populations in Western Europe: What prospects for the next 50 years?

Persistence of populations may be uncertain for large carnivore species, especially for those established in human-dominated landscapes. Here, we studied the Eurasian lynx in Western Europe established in the Upper Rhine meta-population (i.e., Jura, Vosges-Palatinian and Black Forest populations) and the Alpine population. These populations are currently considered endangered or critically endangered due to high anthropogenic mortality, small population size and low genetic diversity, and isolation. We assessed lynx persistence over a 50-year time horizon by implementing a spatially-explicit individual-based model, while accounting for road mortality and habitat selection. Forecasts showed a steady growth rapidly reaching a more stable phase for the Alpine and Jura populations, and a more heterogeneous positive growth with less precision for the Vosges-Palatinian and Black Forest populations. Exchanges of individuals between populations were limited, the Jura population playing the role of a crossroad. Finally, the persistence of lynx in Western Europe seems likely on a large scale over the next 50 years. Indeed, simulations showed high female occupancy as well as average lynx density over the core areas of the four studied populations. Nevertheless, these results should be interpreted with the model limitations in mind, concerning the absence of movement barriers and inbreeding depression.

ecology↗