Dodd-Eaton, E. B. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2023

Personalized Risk Prediction for Cancer Survivors: A Bayesian Semi-parametric Recurrent Event Model with Competing Outcomes

Multiple primary cancers are increasingly more frequent due to improved survival of cancer patients. Characteristics of the first primary cancer largely impact the risk of developing subsequent primary cancers. Hence, model-based risk characterization of cancer survivors that captures patient-specific variables is needed for healthcare policy making. We propose a Bayesian semi-parametric framework, where the occurrence processes of the competing cancer types follow independent non-homogeneous Poisson processes and adjust for covariates including the type and age at diagnosis of the first primary. Applying this framework to a historically collected cohort with families presenting a highly enriched history of multiple primary tumors and diverse cancer types, we have derived a suite of age-to-onset penetrance curves for cancer survivors. This includes penetrance estimates for second primary lung cancer, potentially impactful to ongoing cancer screening decisions. Using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, we have validated the good predictive performance of our models in predicting second primary lung cancer, sarcoma, breast cancer, and all other cancers combined, with areas under the curves (AUCs) at 0.89, 0.91, 0.76 and 0.68, respectively. In conclusion, our framework provides covariate-adjusted quantitative risk assessment for cancer survivors, hence moving a step closer to personalized health management for this unique population.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2020

A pedigree-based prediction model identifies carriers of deleterious de novo mutations in families with Li-Fraumeni syndrome

De novo mutations (DNMs) are increasingly recognized as rare disease causal factors. Identifying DNM carriers will allow researchers to study the likely distinct molecular mechanisms of DNMs. We developed Famdenovo to predict DNM status (DNM or familial mutation (FM)) of deleterious autosomal dominant germline mutations for any syndrome. We introduce Famdenovo.TP53 for Li-Fraumeni syndrome (LFS) and analyze 324 LFS family pedigrees from four US cohorts: a validation set of 186 pedigrees and a discovery set of 138 pedigrees. The concordance index for Famdenovo.TP53 prediction was 0.95 (95% CI: [0.92, 0.98]). Forty individuals (95% CI: [30, 50]) were predicted as DNM carriers, increasing the total number from 42 to 82. We compared clinical and biological features of FM versus DNM carriers: 1) cancer and mutation spectra along with parental ages were similarly distributed; 2) ascertainment criteria like early-onset breast cancer (age 20 to 35 years) provides a condition for an unbiased estimate of the DNM rate: 48% (23 DNMs versus 25 FMs); 3) hotspot mutation R248W was not observed in DNMs, although it was as prevalent as hotspot mutation R248Q in FMs. Furthermore, we introduce Famdenovo.BRCA for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer syndrome, and apply it to a small set of family data from the Cancer Genetics Network. In summary, we introduce a novel statistical approach to systematically evaluate deleterious DNMs in inherited cancer syndromes. Our approach may serve as a foundation for future studies evaluating how new deleterious mutations can be established in the germline, such as those in TP53.

genetics↗