Biology subjects

Didelot, X.

Publications and source records attributed to Didelot, X..

9 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2018

Why panmictic bacteria are rare

BackgroundBacteria typically have more structured populations than higher eukaryotes, but this difference is surprising given high recombination rates, enormous population sizes and effective geographical dispersal in many bacterial species.\n\nResultsWe estimated the recombination scaled effective population size Ner in 21 bacterial species and find that it does not correlate with synonymous nucleotide diversity as would be expected under neutral models of evolution. Only two species have estimates substantially over 100, consistent with approximate panmixia, namely Helicobacter pylori and Vibrio parahaemolyticus. Both species are far from demographic equilibrium, with diversity predicted to increase more than 30 fold in V. parahaemolyticus if the current value of Ner were maintained, to values much higher than found in any species. We propose that panmixia is unstable in bacteria, and that persistent environmental species are likely to evolve barriers to genetic exchange, which act to prevent a continuous increase in diversity by enhancing genetic drift.\n\nConclusionsOur results highlight the dynamic nature of bacterial population structures and imply that overall diversity levels found within a species are poor indicators of its size.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2018

Bayesian inference of ancestral dates on bacterial phylogenetic trees

The sequencing and comparative analysis of a collection of bacterial genomes from a single species or lineage of interest can lead to key insights into its evolution, ecology or epidemiology. The tool of choice for such a study is often to build a phylogenetic tree, and more specifically when possible a dated phylogeny, in which the dates of all common ancestors are estimated. Here we propose a new Bayesian methodology to construct dated phylogenies which is specifically designed for bacterial genomics. Unlike previous Bayesian methods aimed at building dated phylogenies, we consider that the phylogenetic relationships between the genomes have been previously evaluated using a standard phylogenetic method, which makes our methodology much faster and scalable. This two-steps approach also allows us to directly exploit existing phylogenetic methods that detect bacterial recombination, and therefore to account for the effect of recombination in the construction of a dated phylogeny. We analysed many simulated datasets in order to benchmark the performance of our approach in a wide range of situations. Furthermore, we present applications to three different real datasets from recent bacterial genomic studies. Our methodology is implemented in a R package called BactDating which is freely available for download at https://github.com/xavierdidelot/BactDating.

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2018

A dynamic power-law sexual network model of gonorrhoea outbreaks

Human networks of sexual contacts are dynamic by nature, with partnerships forming and breaking continuously over time. Sexual behaviours are also highly heterogeneous, so that the number of partners reported by individuals over a given period of time is typically distributed as a power-law. Both the dynamism and heterogeneity of sexual partnerships are likely to have an effect in the patterns of spread of sexually transmitted diseases. To represent these two fundamental properties of sexual networks, we developed a stochastic process of dynamic partnership formation and dissolution, which results in power-law numbers of partners over time. Model parameters can be set to produce realistic conditions in terms of the exponent of the power-law distribution, of the number of individuals without relationships and of the average duration of relationships. Using an outbreak of antibiotic resistant gonorrhoea amongst men have sex with men as a case study, we show that our realistic dynamic network exhibits different properties compared to the frequently used static networks or homogeneous mixing models. We also consider an approximation to our dynamic network model in terms of a much simpler branching process. We estimate the parameters of the generation time distribution and offspring distribution which can be used for example in the context of outbreak reconstruction based on genomic data. Finally, we investigate the impact of a range of interventions against gonorrhoea, including increased condom use, more frequent screening and immunisation, concluding that the latter shows great promise to reduce the burden of gonorrhoea, even if the vaccine was only partially effective or applied to only a random subset of the population.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2018

A role for tetracycline selection in the evolution of Clostridium difficile PCR-ribotype 078

Farm animals have been identified as reservoirs of Clostridium difficile PCR-ribotype 078 (RT078). Since 2005, the incidence of human clinical cases (frequently severe), with this genotype has increased. We aimed to understand this change, by studying the recent evolutionary history of RT078. Phylogenetic analysis of international genomes (isolates from 2006-2014) revealed several recent clonal expansions. A common ancestor of each expansion had independently acquired different alleles of the tetracycline resistance gene tetM. Consequently, an unusually high proportion of RT078 genomes were tetM positive (76.5%). Additional tetracycline resistance determinants were also identified, some for the first time in C. difficile (efflux pump tet40). Each tetM-clonal expansion lacked geographic structure, indicating rapid international spread. Resistance determinants for C. difficile-infection-triggering antimicrobials including fluoroquinolones and clindamycin were comparatively rare in RT078. Tetracyclines are used intensively in agriculture; this selective pressure, plus rapid spread via the food-chain may explain the increased RT078 prevalence in humans.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2017

The global distribution and spread of the mobilized colistin resistance gene mcr-1

Colistin represents one of the very few available drugs for treating infections caused by carbapenem resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE). As such, the recent plasmid-mediated spread of the mobilized colistin resistance gene mcr-1 poses a significant public health threat requiring global monitoring and surveillance. In this work, we characterize the global distribution of mcr-1 using a dataset of 457 mcr-1 positive sequenced isolates consisting of currently publicly available mcr-1 carrying sequences combined with an additional 110 newly sequenced mcr-1 positive isolates from China. We find mcr-1 in a diversity of plasmid backgrounds but identify an immediate background common to all mcr-1 sequences. Our analyses establish that all mcr-1 elements in circulation descend from the same initial mobilization of mcr-1 by an ISApl1 transposon in the mid 2000s (2002-2008; 95% higher posterior density), followed by a dramatic demographic expansion, which led to its current global distribution. Our results provide the first systematic phylogenetic analysis of the origin and spread of mcr-1, and emphasize the importance of understanding the movement of mobile elements carrying antibiotic resistance genes across multiple levels of genomic organization.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Modeling the growth and decline of pathogen effective population size provides insight into epidemic dynamics and drivers of antimicrobial resistance

AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWNon-parametric population genetic modeling provides a simple and flexible approach for studying demographic history and epidemic dynamics using pathogen sequence data. Existing Bayesian approaches are premised on stationary stochastic processes which may provide an unrealistic prior for epidemic histories which feature extended period of exponential growth or decline. We show that non-parametric models defined in terms of the growth rate of the effective population size can provide a more realistic prior for epidemic history. We propose a non-parametric autoregressive model on the growth rate as a prior for effective population size, which corresponds to the dynamics expected under many epidemic situations. We demonstrate the use of this model within a Bayesian phylodynamic inference framework. Our method correctly reconstructs trends of epidemic growth and decline from pathogen genealogies even when genealogical data is sparse and conventional skyline estimators erroneously predict stable population size. We also propose a regression approach for relating growth rates of pathogen effective population size and time-varying variables that may impact the replicative fitness of a pathogen. The model is applied to real data from rabies virus and Staphylococcus aureus epidemics. We find a close correspondence between the estimated growth rates of a lineage of methicillin-resistant S. aureus and population-level prescription rates of {beta}-lactam antibiotics. The new models are implemented in an open source R package called skygrowth which is available at https://mrc-ide.github.io/skygrowth/.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2017

A Phylogenetic Method To Perform Genome-Wide Association Studies In Microbes That Accounts For Population Structure And Recombination

Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) in microbial organisms have the potential to vastly improve the way we understand, manage, and treat infectious diseases. Yet, GWAS methods established thus far remain insufficiently able to capitalise on the growing wealth of bacterial and viral genetic sequence data. Facing clonal population structure and homologous recombination, existing GWAS methods struggle to achieve both the precision necessary to reject spurious findings and the power required to detect associations in microbes. In this paper, we introduce a novel phylogenetic approach that has been tailor-made for microbial GWAS, which is applicable to organisms ranging from purely clonal to frequently recombining, and to both binary and continuous phenotypes. Our approach is robust to the confounding effects of both population structure and recombination, while maintaining high statistical power to detect associations. Thorough testing via application to simulated data provides strong support for the power and specificity of our approach and demonstrates the advantages offered over alternative cluster-based and dimension-reduction methods. Two applications to Neisseria meningitidis illustrate the versatility and potential of our method, confirming previously-identified penicillin resistance loci and resulting in the identification of both well-characterised and novel drivers of invasive disease. Our method is implemented as an open-source R package called treeWAS which is freely available at https://github.com/caitiecollins/treeWAS.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Quantifying The Fitness Benefit And Cost Of Cefixime Resistance In Neisseria gonorrhoeae To Inform Prescription Policy

Gonorrhea is one of the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infections in England. Over 41,000 cases were recorded in 2015, more than half of which occurred in men who have sex with men (MSM). As the bacterium has developed resistance to each first-line antibiotic in turn, we need an improved understanding of fitness benefits and costs of antibiotic resistance to inform control policy and planning. Cefixime was recommended as a single dose treatment for gonorrhea from 2005 to 2010, during which time resistance increased and subsequently declined. We developed a stochastic compartmental model representing the natural history and transmission of cefixime sensitive and resistant strains of Neisseria gonorrhoeae in MSM in England, which was applied to data on diagnoses and prescriptions between 2008 and 2015. We estimated that asymptomatic carriers play a crucial role in overall transmission dynamics, with about 40% of infections remaining asymptomatic and untreated, accounting for 96% of onward transmission. The fitness cost of cefixime resistance in the absence of cefixime usage was estimated to be such that the number of secondary infections caused by resistant strains is only about half as much as for the susceptible strains, which is insufficient to maintain persistence. However, we estimated that treatment of cefixime-resistant strains with cefixime was unsuccessful in 84% of cases, representing a fitness benefit of resistance. This benefit was large enough to counterbalance the fitness cost when 31% of cases are treated with cefixime, and when more than 51% of cases were treated with cefixime the resistant strain had a net fitness advantage over the susceptible strain. Our findings have important implications for antibiotic stewardship and public health policies, and in particular suggest that cefixime could be used to treat a minority of gonorrhea cases without raising resistance levels.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Frequent recombination of pneumococcal capsule highlights future risks of emergence of novel serotypes.

Capsular diversity of Streptococcus pneumoniae constitutes a major obstacle in eliminating the pneumococcal disease. Such diversity is genetically encoded by almost 100 variants of the capsule polysaccharide locus (cps). However, the evolutionary dynamics of the capsule - the target of the currently used vaccines - remains not fully understood. Here, using genetic data from 4,469 bacterial isolates, we found cps to be an evolutionary hotspot with elevated substitution and recombination rates. These rates were a consequence of altered selection at this locus, supporting the hypothesis that the capsule has an increased potential to generate novel diversity compared to the rest of the genome. Analysis of twelve serogroups revealed their complex evolutionary history, which was principally driven by recombination with other serogroups and other streptococci. We observed significant variation in recombination rates between different serogroups. This variation could only be partially explained by the lineage-specific recombination rate, the remaining factors being likely driven by serogroup-specific ecology and epidemiology. Finally, we discovered two previously unobserved mosaic serotypes in the densely sampled collection from Mae La, Thailand, here termed 10X and 21X. Our results thus emphasise the strong adaptive potential of the bacterium by its ability to generate novel serotypes by recombination.

evolutionary biology↗