Delecroix, C. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2023

Mechanistic models for West Nile Virus transmission:A systematic review of features, aims, and parameterisation

Mathematical models within the Ross-Macdonald framework increasingly play a role in our understanding of vector-borne disease dynamics and as tools for assessing scenarios to respond to emerging threats. These threats are typically characterised by a high degree of heterogeneity, introducing a range of possible complexities in models and challenges to maintain the link with empirical evidence. We systematically identified and analysed a total of 67 published papers presenting compartmental West Nile Virus (WNV) models that use parameter values derived from empirical studies. Using a set of fifteen criteria, we measured the dissimilarity compared to the Ross-Macdonald framework. We also retrieved the purpose and type of models and traced the empirical sources of their parameters. Our review highlights the increasing refinements in WNV models. Models for prediction included the highest number of refinements. We found uneven distributions of refinements and of evidence for parameter values. We identified several challenges in parameterising such increasingly complex models. For parameters common to most models, we also synthesise the empirical evidence for their values and ranges. The study highlights the potential to improve the quality of WNV models and their applicability for policy by establishing closer collaboration between mathematical modelling and empirical work.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

Monitoring Resilience in Bursts

The possibility to anticipate critical transitions through detecting loss of resilience has attracted attention in a variety of fields. Resilience indicators rely on the mathematical concept of critical slowing down, which means that a system recovers increasingly slowly from external perturbations when approaching a tipping point. This decrease in recovery rate can be reflected in rising autocorrelation and variance in data. To test whether resilience is changing, resilience indicators are often calculated using a moving window in long, continuous time series of the system. However, for some systems it may be more feasible to collect several high-resolution time series in short periods of time, i.e. in bursts. Resilience indicators can then be calculated to detect a change of resilience in a system between such bursts. Here, we compare the performance of both methods using simulated data, and showcase possible use of bursts in a case-study using mood data to anticipate depression in a patient. Using the same number of data points, the burst approach outperformed the moving window method, suggesting that it is possible to down-sample the continuous time series and still signal of an upcoming transition. We suggest guidelines to design an optimal sampling strategy. Our results imply that using bursts of data instead of continuous time series may improve the capacity to detect changes in systems resilience. This method is promising for a variety of fields, such as human health, epidemiology, or ecology, where continuous monitoring is costly or unfeasible. Significance statementGauging the risk of tipping points is of great relevance in complex systems ranging from health to climate, and ecosystems. For this purpose, dynamical indicators of resilience are being derived from long continuous time series to monitor the system and obtain early warning signals. However, gathering such data is often prohibitively expensive or practically unfeasible. Here we show that collecting data in brief, intense bursts may often solve the problem, making it possible to estimate change in resilience between the bursts withrelatively high precision. This may be particularly useful for monitoring resilience of humans or animals, where brief time series of blood pressure, balance, mood or other relevant markers may be collected relatively easily to help estimating systemic resilience.

ecology↗