Delach, A. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2021

Targeting current species ranges and carbon stocks fails to conserve biodiversity in a changing climate: opportunities to support climate adaptation under 30x30

Protecting areas for climate adaptation will be essential to ensuring greater opportunity for species conservation well into the future. However, many proposals for protected areas expansion focus on our understanding of current spatial patterns, which may be ineffective surrogates for future needs. A science-driven call to address the biodiversity and climate crises by conserving at least 30% of lands and waters by 2030, 30x30, presents new opportunities to inform the siting of new protections globally and in the U.S. Here we identify climate refugia and corridors based on a weighted combination of currently available models; compare them to current biodiversity hotspots and carbon-rich areas to understand how 30x30 protections siting may be biased by data omission; and compare identified refugia and corridors to the Protected Areas Database to assess current levels of protection. Available data indicate that 20.5% and 27.5% of identified climate adaptation areas (refugia and/or corridor) coincides with current imperiled species hotspots and carbon-rich areas, respectively. With only 12.5% of climate refugia and corridors protected, a continued focus on current spatial patterns in species and carbon richness will not inherently conserve places critical for climate adaptation. However, there is ample opportunity for establishing future-minded protections: 52% of the contiguous U.S. falls into the top quartile of values for at least one class of climate refugia. Nearly 27% is already part of the protected areas network but managed for multiple uses that may limit their ability to contribute to the goals of 30x30. Additionally, nearly two-thirds of nationally identified refugia coincide with ecoregion-specific refugia suggesting representation of nearly all ecoregions in national efforts focused on conserving climate refugia. Based on these results, we recommend that land planners and managers make more explicit policy priorities and strategic decisions for future-minded protections and climate adaptation.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Agency plans are inadequate to conserve US endangered species under climate change

Despite widespread evidence of climate change as a threat to biodiversity, it is unclear whether government policies and agencies are adequately addressing this threat to species1-4. We evaluate species sensitivity, a component of climate change vulnerability, and whether climate change is discussed as a threat in planning for climate-related management action in official documents from 1973-2018 for all 459 US animals listed as endangered under the Endangered Species Act. We find that 99.8% of species are sensitive to one or more of eight sensitivity factors, but agencies consider climate change as a threat to only 64% of species and plan management actions for only 18% of species. Agencies are more likely to plan actions for species sensitive to more factors, but such planning has declined since 2016. Results highlight the gap between climate change sensitivity and the attention from agencies charged with conserving endangered species.

ecology↗