Dalsente Krause, M. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2023

Models to Estimate Genetic Gain of Soybean Seed Yield from Annual Multi-Environment Field Trials

1Genetic improvements of discrete characteristics such as flower color, the genetic improvements are obvious and easy to demonstrate; however, for characteristics that are measured on continuous scales, the genetic contributions are incremental and less obvious. Reliable and accurate methods are required to disentangle the confounding genetic and non-genetic components of quantitative traits. Stochastic simulations of soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) breeding programs were performed to evaluate models to estimate the realized genetic gain (RGG) from 30 years of multi-environment trials (MET). True breeding values were simulated under an infinitesimal model to represent the genetic contributions to soybean seed yield under various MET conditions. Estimators were evaluated using objective criteria of bias and linearity. Results indicated all estimation models were biased. Covariance modeling as well as direct versus indirect estimation resulted in substantial differences in RGG estimation. Although there were no unbiased models, the three best-performing models resulted in an average bias of {+/-}7.41 kg/ha-1/yr-1 ({+/-}0.11 bu/ac-1/yr-1). Rather than relying on a single model to estimate RGG, we recommend the application of multiple models and consider the range of the estimated values. Further, based on our simulations parameters, we do not think it is appropriate to use any single models to compare breeding programs or quantify the efficiency of proposed new breeding strategies. Lastly, for public soybean programs breeding for maturity groups II and III in North America from 1989 to 2019, the range of estimated RGG values was from 18.16 to 39.68 kg/ha-1/yr-1 (0.27 to 0.59 bu/ac-1/yr-1).

genetics↗

bioRxiv2022

Using large soybean historical data to study genotype by environment variation and identify mega-environments with the integration of genetic and non-genetic factors

1Soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) provides plant-based protein for global food production and is extensively bred to create cultivars with greater productivity in distinct environments. Plant breeders evaluate new soybean genotypes using multi-environment trials (MET). The application of MET assumes that trial locations provide representative environmental conditions that cultivars are likely to encounter when grown by farmers. In addition, MET are important to depict the patterns of genotype by environment interactions (GEI). To evaluate GEI for soybean seed yield and identify mega-environments (ME), a retrospective analysis of 39,006 data points from experimental soybean genotypes evaluated in preliminary and uniform field trials conducted by public plant breeders from 1989-2019 was considered. ME were identified from phenotypic information from the annual trials, geographic, soil, and meteorological records at the trial locations. Results indicate that yield variation was mostly explained by location and location by year interactions. The static portion of the GEI represented 26.30% of the total yield variance. Estimates of variance components derived from linear mixed models demonstrated that the phenotypic variation due to genotype by location interaction effects was greater than genotype by year interaction effects. A trend analysis indicated a two-fold increase in the genotypic variance between 1989-1995 and 1996-2019. Furthermore, the heterogeneous estimates of genotypic, genotype by location, genotype by year, and genotype by location by year variances, were encapsulated by distinct probability distributions. The observed target population of environments can be divided into at least two and at most three ME, thereby suggesting improvements in the response to selection can be achieved when selecting directly for clustered (i.e., regions, ME) versus selecting across regions. Clusters obtained using phenotypic data, latitude, and soil variables plus elevation, were the most effective. In addition, we published the R package SoyURT which contains the data sets used in this work. 2 HighlightsO_LIMega-environments can be identified with phenotypic, geographic, and meteorological data. C_LIO_LIReliable estimates of variances can be obtained with proper analyses of historical data. C_LIO_LIGenotype by location was more important than genotype by year variation for seed yield. C_LIO_LIThe trend in genotype by environment variances was captured in probability distributions. C_LI

genetics↗