Colin Carlson | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2016

A Numerus Population Viability and Harvesting Analyses Web App

Population viability analysis (PVA) is used to assess the probability that a biological population will persist for a specified period of time. Such models are typically cast as Markov processes that may include age, stage, sex and metapopulation structures, density-dependence and ecological interaction processes. They may also include harvesting, stocking, and thresholds that trigger interventions. Here we present Numerus PVA, which is a web app that includes extensible user-selected options. Specifically, Numerus PVA allows for the specification of one to ten age classes, one or two sexes, single population or metapopulation configurations with 2 or 3 subpopulations, as well as density-dependent settings for inducing region-specific carrying capacities. Movement among subpopulations can be influenced by age, metapopulation connectivity, and attractivity of regions based on the relative fitness of the youngest age classes in each region. Simulations can be carried out deterministically or stochastically, with a user-specified combination of demographic and environmental processes. Numerus PVA is freely available at http://www.numerusinc.com/webapps/pva for running directly on any browser and device. Numerus PVA is easily modified by users familiar with the NovaModeler Software Platform.

Ecology↗

bioRxiv2016

An ecological assessment of the pandemic threat of Zika virus

The current outbreak of Zika virus poses a threat of unknown magnitude to human health1. While the range of the virus has been cataloged growing slowly over the last 50 years, the recent explosive expansion in the Americas indicates that the full potential distribution of Zika remains uncertain2-4. Moreover, most current epidemiology relies on its similarities to dengue fever, a phylogenetically closely related disease of unknown similarity in spatial range or ecological niche5,6. Here we compile the first spatially explicit global occurrence dataset from Zika viral surveillance and serological surveys, and construct ecological niche models to test basic hypotheses about its spread and potential establishment. The hypothesis that the outbreak of cases in Mexico and North America are anomalous and outside the ecological niche of the disease, and may be linked to El Nino or similar climatic events, remains plausible at this time7. Comparison of the Zika niche against the known distribution of dengue fever suggests that Zika is more constrained by the seasonality of precipitation and diurnal temperature fluctuations, likely confining the disease to the tropics outside of pandemic scenarios. Projecting the range of the diseases in conjunction with vector species (Aedes africanus, Ae. aegypti, and Ae. albopictus) that transmit the pathogens, under climate change, suggests that Zika has potential for northward expansion; but, based on current knowledge, Zika is unlikely to fill the full range its vectors occupy. With recent sexual transmission of the virus known to have occurred in the United States, we caution that our results only apply to the vector-borne aspect of the disease, and while the threat of a mosquito-carried Zika pandemic may be overstated in the media, other transmission modes of the virus may emerge and facilitate naturalization worldwide.

Ecology↗