Declining autozygosity over time: an exploration in over 1 million individuals from three diverse cohorts
We hypothesized that overall autozygosity is decreasing over generational time. In this report, we present data that partially support this hypothesis from three large cohorts of diverse ancestries, two from the US (All of Us and the Million Veteran Program, N=82,474 and 622,497, respectively) and one from the UK (UK Biobank, N=380,899). Our results from a mixed-effect meta-analysis demonstrate an overall trend of decreasing autozygosity over generational time (meta-analyzed slope=-0.029, se=0.009, p=6.03e-4). Using a chi-square difference test, we determined that a model including an ancestry-by-country interaction term fit the data best, indicating that ancestry differences in this trend differ by country. We found further evidence to suggest a difference between the US and UK cohorts by meta-analyzing within country, observing a significant negative estimate in the US cohorts (meta-analyzed slope=-0.058, se=0.015, p=1.50e-4) but a non-significant estimate in the UK (meta-analyzed slope=-0.001, se=0.008, p=0.945). We also found that the association between autozygosity and year of birth in the overall meta-analysis was substantially attenuated when accounting for educational attainment and income (meta-analyzed slope=-0.011, se=0.008, p=0.167), suggesting that increases in education and income may partially account for decreasing levels of autozygosity over time. To our knowledge, this is the largest demonstration of decreasing autozygosity over time in a modern sample (birth years 1904-2003), and we speculate that this trend can be attributed to increases in population size, urbanization and panmixia, with differences in demographic and sociocultural processes leading to country-specific differences in the rate of decline.