Chitwood, M. H. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2024

e3SIM: epidemiological-ecological-evolutionary simulation framework for genomic epidemiology

Infectious disease dynamics are driven by the complex interplay of epidemiological, ecological, and evolutionary processes. Accurately modeling these interactions is crucial for understanding pathogen spread and informing public health strategies. However, existing simulators often fail to capture the dynamic interplay between these processes, resulting in oversimplified models that do not fully reflect real-world complexities in which the pathogens genetic evolution dynamically influences disease transmission. We introduce the epidemiological-ecological-evolutionary simulator (e3SIM), an open-source framework that concurrently models the transmission dynamics and molecular evolution of pathogens within a host population while integrating environmental factors. Using an agent-based, discrete-generation, forward-in-time approach, e3SIM incorporates compartmental models, host-population contact networks, and quantitative-trait models for pathogens. This integration allows for realistic simulations of disease spread and pathogen evolution. Key features include a modular and scalable design, flexibility in modeling various epidemiological and population-genetic complexities, incorporation of time-varying environmental factors, and a user-friendly graphical interface. We demonstrate e3SIMs capabilities through simulations of realistic outbreak scenarios with SARS-CoV-2 and Mycobacterium tuberculosis, illustrating its flexibility for studying the genomic epidemiology of diverse pathogen types.

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2024

A new method for detecting mixed Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and reconstructing constituent strains provides insights into transmission

BackgroundMixed infection with multiple strains of the same pathogen in a single host can present clinical and analytical challenges. Whole genome sequence (WGS) data can identify signals of multiple strains in samples, though the precision of previous methods can be improved. Here, we present MixInfect2, a new tool to accurately detect mixed samples from Mycobacterium tuberculosis WGS data. We then evaluate three approaches for reconstructing the underlying mixed constituent strain sequences. This allows these samples to be included in downstream analysis to gain insights into the epidemiology and transmission of mixed infections. MethodsWe employed a Gaussian mixture model to cluster allele frequencies at mixed sites (hSNPs) in each sample to identify signals of multiple strains. Building upon our previous tool, MixInfect, we increased the accuracy of classifying in vitro mixed samples through multiple improvements to the bioinformatic pipeline. Major and minor proportion constituent strains were reconstructed using three approaches and assessed by comparing the estimated sequence to the known constituent strain sequence. Lastly, mixed infections in a real-world Mycobacterium tuberculosis population from Moldova were detected with MixInfect2 and clusters of recent transmission that included major and minor constituent strains were built. ResultsAll 36/36 in vitro mixed and 12/12 non-mixed samples were correctly classified with MixInfect2, and major strain proportions estimated with high accuracy, outperforming previous tools. Reconstructed major strain sequences closely matched the true constituent sequence by taking the allele at the highest frequency at hSNPs, while the best performing approach to reconstruct the minor proportion strain sequence was identifying the closest non-mixed isolate in the same population, though no approach was effective when the minor strain proportion was at 5%. Finally, fewer mixed infections were identified in Moldova than previous estimates (6.6% vs 17.4%) and we found multiple instances where the constituent strains of mixed samples were present in transmission clusters. ConclusionsMixInfect2 accurately detects samples with evidence of mixed infection from WGS data and provides an excellent estimate of the mixture proportions. While there are limitations in reconstructing the constituent strain sequences of mixed samples, we present recommendations for the best approach to include these isolates in further analyses.

genomics↗