Biology subjects

Chen, X.

Publications and source records attributed to Chen, X..

At least 1,549 records · Page 86Linked to original sources

bioRxiv2018

The crossover function of MutSγ is activated via Cdc7-dependent stabilization of Msh4

The MutS{gamma} complex, Msh4-Msh5, binds DNA joint-molecule (JM) intermediates during homologous recombination to promote crossing over and accurate chromosome segregation at the first division of meiosis. MutS{gamma} facilitates the formation and biased resolution of crossover-specific JM intermediates called double Holliday junctions. Here we show that these activities are governed by regulated proteasomal degradation. MutS{gamma} is initially inactive for crossing over due to an N-terminal degron on Msh4 that renders it unstable. Activation of MutS{gamma} requires the Dbf4-dependent kinase, Cdc7 (DDK), which directly phosphorylates and thereby neutralizes the Msh4 degron. Phosphorylated Msh4 is chromatin bound and requires DNA strand exchange and chromosome synapsis, implying that DDK specifically targets MutS{gamma} that has already bound nascent JMs. Our study establishes regulated protein degradation as a fundamental mechanism underlying meiotic crossover control.

genetics↗

bioRxiv2018

Altered microRNA expression profles are involved in Storage Lesions of Apheresis Platelet

Although platelet is anucleate cell, it contains a large amount miRNAs. This study aims to explore the relationship between miRNAs expression profles and platelets function, as well as miRNAs potential roles during platelet storage lesions. Platelets were collected from 15 healthy men with O blood types. MiRNAs profiles in platelets were detected by Agilent Human miRNA Array Differential miRNA levels were studied using human platelets after apheresis and stored for 2, 5 and 8 days using microarray. There were 167 and 230 altered miRNAs during the 5 and 8 day storage, respectively. In addition, the number of reduced miRNAs was much greater than that of increased. And many of them are involved in functions of platelet activation, degranulation, PDGF receptor signaling pathway and cell differentiation. The results of RT-PCR showed that the expression of miR-21-5p, miR-21-3p and miR-155 decreased on the 5th day, while miR-223, miR-3162 and let-7b increased. Flow cytometry results revealed that with increase of storage time, the expression of P2Y12 increased and phosphorylation level of VASP reduced. Meanwhile, the platelet reactivity index (PRI) decreased from 72.7% to 18.2%, while the apoptotic percentage of platelet significantly increased. For the first time, we found altered miRNAs are closely related to platelet aggregation, including P2Y12, VASP and GPb/a. Through KEGG database prediction, we verified there were many miRNAs impacting the pathway of platelet aggregation, such as miR-223, miR-21 and let-7b, which indicated miRNAs might serve as potential biomarkers of storage lesion in platelet. These target miRNAs are related to activation, degranulation and PDGF receptor signaling pathway of platelet.

molecular biology↗

bioRxiv2018

Disentangling the contribution of childhood and adulthood circumstances and genetics to phenotypic aging: prospective cohort study

ObjectivesTo evaluate the extent to which childhood and adulthood circumstances and genetics contribute to phenotypic aging, using a multi-system-based signature of aging that has been shown to capture mortality and morbidity risk.\n\nDesignProspective population-based cohort study.\n\nSettingUnited States (U.S.).\n\nParticipants2,339 adults (aged 51+ years) from U.S. Health and Retirement Study, who participated in the Core Survey, the 2016 Venous Blood Study, the 2015 Life History Mail Survey, the Enhanced Face-To-Face interview (2006-2016), and were part of the genetic sample.\n\nMain outcomes measurePhenotypic Age, a validated aging measure based on a linear combination of chronological age and nine multi-system biomarkers. For most analyses, we examined \"PhenoAgeAccel\", which represents phenotypic aging after accounting for chronological age (i.e. whether a person appears older [positive value] or younger [negative value] than expected, physiologically).\n\nResultsThe Shapley Value Decomposition approach revealed that together all 11 domains (four childhood and adulthood circumstances domains, five polygenic scores [PGSs] domains, demographics, and behaviors domains) accounted for about 30% of variance in PhenoAgeAccel. Among the four circumstances domains, adulthood adversity was the largest contributor (9%), while adulthood socioeconomic status (SES), childhood adversity, and childhood SES accounted for 2.8%, 2.1%, 0.7%, respectively. Collectively, all PGSs contributed 3.8% of variance in PhenoAgeAccel. Further, six subpopulations/clusters--identified using a hierarchical cluster analysis based on childhood and adulthood SES and adversity--showed differences in average levels of phenotypic aging. Finally, there was a significant gene-by-environment interaction between a previously validated PGS for coronary artery disease and the most apparently disadvantaged subpopulation/cluster--suggesting a multiplicative effect of adverse environment coupled with genetic risk on phenotypic aging.\n\nConclusionsSocioenvironmental circumstances during both childhood and adulthood account for a sizable proportion of the difference in phenotypic aging among U.S. older adults. The detrimental effects may further be exacerbated among persons with a genetic predisposition to coronary artery disease.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2018

The Nucleome of Developing Murine Rod Photoreceptors

The nuclei of rod photoreceptors in mice and other nocturnal species have an unusual inverted chromatin structure: the heterochromatin is centrally located to help focus light and improve photosensitivity. To better understand this unique nuclear organization, we performed ultra-deep Hi-C analysis on murine retina at 3 stages of development and on purified rod photoreceptors. Predicted looping interactions from the Hi-C data were validated with fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH). We discovered that a subset of retinal genes that are important for retinal development, cancer, and stress response are localized to the facultative heterochromatin domain. We also used machine learning to develop an algorithm based on our chromatin Hidden Markov Modeling (chromHMM) of retinal development to predict heterochromatin domains and study their dynamics during retinogenesis. FISH data for 264 genomic loci were used to train and validate the algorithm. The integrated data were then used to identify a developmental stage- and cell type-specific core regulatory circuit super-enhancer (CRC-SE) upstream of the Vsx2 gene, which is required for bipolar neuron expression. Deletion of the Vsx2 CRC-SE in mice led to the loss of bipolar neurons in the retina.

neuroscience↗

bioRxiv2018

MYCN Amplification and ATRX Mutations are Incompatible in Neuroblastoma

Aggressive cancers often have activating mutations in growth-controlling oncogenes and inactivating mutations in tumor-suppressor genes. In neuroblastoma, amplification of the MYCN oncogene and inactivation of the ATRX tumor-suppressor gene correlate with high-risk disease and poor prognosis. Here we show that ATRX mutations and MYCN amplification are mutually exclusive across all ages and stages in neuroblastoma. Using human cell lines and mouse models, we found that elevated MYCN expression and ATRX mutations are incompatible. Elevated MYCN levels promote metabolic reprogramming, mitochondrial dysfunction, reactive-oxygen species generation, and DNA-replicative stress. The combination of replicative stress caused by defects in the ATRX-histone chaperone complex and that induced by MYCN-mediated metabolic reprogramming leads to synthetic lethality. Therefore, ATRX and MYCN represent an unusual example, where inactivation of a tumor-suppressor gene and activation of an oncogene are incompatible. This synthetic lethality may eventually be exploited to improve outcomes for patients with high-risk neuroblastoma.

cancer biology↗

bioRxiv2018

Alternative splicing and translation play important roles in parallel with transcriptional regulation during rice hypoxic germination

Post-transcriptional mechanisms, including alternative splicing (AS) and alternative translation initiation (ATI), have been used to explain the protein diversity involved in plant developmental processes and stress responses. Rice germination under hypoxia conditions is a classical model system for the study of low oxygen stress. It is known that there is transcriptional regulation during rice hypoxic germination, but the potential roles of AS and ATI in this process are not well understood. In this study, a proteogenomic approach was used to integrate the data from RNA sequencing, qualitative and quantitative proteomics to discover new players or pathways in the response to hypoxia stress. The improved analytical pipeline of proteogenomics led to the identification of 10,253 intron-containing genes, 1,729 of which were not present in the current annotation. Approximately 1,741 differentially expressed AS (DAS) events from 811 genes were identified in hypoxia-treated seeds in comparison to controls. Over 95% of these were not present in the list of differentially expressed genes (DEG). In particular, regulatory pathways such as spliceosome, ribosome, ER protein processing and export, proteasome, phagosome, oxidative phosphorylation and mRNA surveillance showed substantial AS changes under hypoxia, suggesting that AS responses are largely independent of traditional transcriptional regulation. Massive AS changes were identified, including the preference usage of certain non-conventional splice sites and enrichment of splicing factors in the DAS datasets. In addition, using self-constructed protein libraries by 6-frame translation, thousands of novel proteins/peptides contributed by ATI were identified. In summary, these results provide deeper insights towards understanding the underlying mechanisms of AS and ATI during rice hypoxic germination.

plant biology↗

bioRxiv2018

Growth Factor Independent 1 is a tumor suppressor gene in colorectal cancer

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer and the third leading cause of cancer death in the United States, causing about 50,000 deaths each year. Growth Factor-Independent 1 (GFI1) is a critical zinc finger transcriptional repressor responsible for controlling secretory cell differentiation in the small intestine and colon. GFI1 plays a significant role in the development of human malignancies, including leukemia, lung cancer and prostate cancer. However, the role of GFI1 in CRC progression is largely unknown. Our results demonstrate that RNA and protein expression of GFI1 are reduced in advanced stages of non-mucinous CRC. Subcutaneous tumor models demonstrated that the re-expression of GFI1 in 4 different human CRC cell lines inhibits tumor growth by 25-60%. To further investigate the role of Gfi1 in de novo colorectal tumorigenesis, we developed transgenic mice harboring a deletion of Gfi1 in the distal intestine driven by the CDX2cre (Gfi1F/F; CDX2cre/+) and crossed them with ApcMin/+ mice (ApcMin/+; Gfi1F/F; CDX2cre/+). Loss of Gfi1 significantly increased the total number of colorectal adenomas compared to littermate controls with an APC mutation alone. Furthermore, we found that compound (ApcMin/+; Gfi1F/F; CDX2cre/+) mice develop both adenomas as well as carcinoid-like tumors expressing the neuroendocrine marker chromogranin A, a feature that has not been previously described in APC-mutant tumors in mice. Collectively, these results demonstrate that Gfi1 deficiency promotes colorectal tumorigenesis, and suggest that loss of Gfi1 may promote formation of carcinoid cancers of the large intestines.\n\nSignificanceThese findings reveal that GFI1 functions as a tumor suppressor gene in colorectal tumorigenesis.

cancer biology↗

bioRxiv2018

Neuroglial Remodeling After Various Ocular Injuries is Regulated by Microglia

Reactive microglia and infiltrating peripheral monocytes have been implicated in many neurodegenerative diseases of the retina and central nervous system (CNS). However, their specific contribution in retinal degeneration remains unclear. We recently showed that peripheral monocytes that infiltrate the retina after ocular injury in mice become permanently engrafted into the tissue, establishing a pro-inflammatory phenotype that promotes neurodegeneration. Here, we show in mice that microglia regulate the process of neuroglia remodeling during ocular injury, and their depletion results in marked upregulation of inflammatory markers, such as Il17f, Tnfsf11, Ccl4, Il1a, Ccr2, Il4, Il5, and Csf2 in the retina, abnormal engraftment of peripheral CCR2+ CX3CR1+ monocytes into the retina and is associated with increased retinal ganglion cell (RGC) loss, retinal nerve fiber layer thinning, and RPE65+ cell migration onto the retinal surface. Furthermore, we show that other types of ocular injuries, such as penetrating corneal trauma and ocular hypertension, also cause similar changes. However, optic nerve crush injury mediated RGC loss evokes neither peripheral monocyte response in the retina, nor RPE65+ cell migration, although peripheral CX3CR1+ and CCR2+ monocytes infiltrate the optic nerve injury site and remain present for months. Our study suggests that microglia are key regulators of peripheral monocyte infiltration and RPE migration and their depletion results in abnormal neuroglia remodeling that exacerbates neuroretinal tissue damage. This mechanism of retinal damage through neuroglia remodeling may be clinically important for the treatment of patients with ocular injuries, including surgical traumas.

immunology↗

bioRxiv2018

The Big Five, Self-efficacy, and Self-control in Boxers

Inviting 210 boxers of national athletes in China as participants, this study applied the NEO Five-Factor Inventory and self-control and self-efficacy scales for athletes to examine the relationship between personality traits and self-control, as well as any effect of self-efficacy as a mediator between the two variables. The data analysis indicated that, firstly, the boxers overall level of self-control is high, and the higher the competitive level, the higher the level of self-control. Secondly, there were significant correlations among the Big Five, self-control, and self-efficacy. Thirdly, the mediation model showed that self-efficacy has a significant mediating effect between the Big Five and self-control. These results suggest that formulating training and intervention programs based on the personality traits of boxers and focusing on training their self-efficacy (1) to help them enhance their self-control ability, thereby improving athletic performance and promoting physical and mental health, and (2) to support the inclusion of personality traits, self-efficacy, and self-control among psychological indicators to be assessed in boxers.

scientific communication and education↗

bioRxiv2018

Genetically modified pigs are protected from classical swine fever virus

Classical swine fever (CSF) caused by classical swine fever virus (CSFV) is among the most detrimental diseases, and leads to significant economic losses in the swine industry. Despite efforts by many government authorities try to stamp out the disease from national pig populations, the disease remains widespread. Here, antiviral small hairpin RNAs (shRNAs) were selected and then inserted at the porcine ROSA26 (pROSA26) locus via a CRISPR/Cas9-mediated knock-in strategy. Finally, anti-CSFV transgenic (TG) pigs were produced by somatic nuclear transfer (SCNT). Importantly, in vitro and in vivo viral challenge assays demonstrated that these TG pigs could effectively limit the growth of CSFV and reduced CSFV-associated clinical signs and mortality, and the disease resistance was stably transmitted to F1-generation. The use of these TG pigs can improve the well-being of livestock and substantially reduce virus-related economic losses. Additionally, this antiviral approach may provide a reference for future antiviral research.\n\nAuthor summaryClassical swine fever (CSF), caused by classical swine fever virus (CSFV), and is a highly contagious, often fatal porcine disease with significant economic losses. Due to its economic importance to the pig industry, the biology and pathogenesis of CSFV have been investigated extensively. Despite efforts by many government authorities to stamp out the disease from national pig populations, the disease remains widespread in some regions and seems to be waiting for the reintroduction and the next round of disease outbreaks. These highlight the necessity and urgency of developing more effective approaches to eradicate the challenging CSFV. In this study, we successfully produced anti-CSFV transgenic pigs and confirmed that these transgenic pigs could effectively limit the growth of CSFV in vivo and in vitro and that the disease resistance traits in the TG founders can be stably transmitted to their F1-generation offspring. This study suggests that these TG pigs can improve the well-being of livestock and contribute to offer potential benefits over commercial vaccination. The use of these TG pigs can improve the well-being of livestock and substantially reduce CSFV-related economic losses.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2018

Comparative genomic analysis revealed rapid differentiation in the pathogenicity-related gene repertoires between Pyricularia oryzae and Pyricularia penniseti isolated from a Pennisetum grass

BackgroundsPyricularia is a multispecies complex that could infect and cause severe blast disease on diverse hosts, including rice, wheat and many other grasses. Although the genome size of this fungal complex is small [~40 Mbp for Pyricularia oryzae (syn. Magnaporthe oryzae), and ~45 Mbp for P. grisea], the genome plasticity allows the fungus to jump and adapt to new hosts. Therefore, deciphering the genome basis of individual species could facilitate the evolutionary and genetic study of this fungus. However, except for the P. oryzae subgroup, many other species isolated from diverse hosts, such as the Pennisetum grasses, remain largely uncovered genetically.\n\nResultsHere, we report the genome sequence of a pyriform-shaped fungal strain P. penniseti P1609 isolated from a Pennisetum grass (JUJUNCAO) using PacBio SMRT sequencing technology. We performed a phylogenomic analysis of 28 Magnaporthales species and 5 non-Magnaporthales species and addressed P1609 into a Pyricularia subclade that is distant from P. oryzae. Comparative genomic analysis revealed that the pathogenicity-related gene repertoires were fairly different between P1609 and the P. oryzae strain 70-15, including the cloned avirulence genes, other putative secreted proteins, as well as some other predicted Pathogen-Host Interaction (PHI) genes. Genomic sequence comparison also identified many genomic rearrangements.\n\nConclusionTaken together, our results suggested that the genomic sequence of the P. penniseti P1609 could be a useful resource for the genetic study of the Pennisetum-infecting Pyricularia species.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2018

Quantitative Real-Time Imaging of Glutathione with Sub-Cellular Resolution

Quantitative imaging of glutathione with high spatial and temporal resolution is essential for studying the roles of glutathione in redox biology. We developed a fluorescent glutathione probe--HaloRT--that targets organelles of interest through expressing organelle-specific HaloTag proteins. Using HaloRT, we quantitatively measure the glutathione concentrations in the nucleus and the cytosol and find no appreciable concentration gradient between these two organelles, challenging the view of nuclear compartmentalization of glutathione.

cell biology↗

bioRxiv2018

Genome analysis of the unicellular eukaryote Euplotes vannus provides insights into mating type determination and tolerance to environmental stresses

As a model organism in studies of cell and environmental biology, the free-living and cosmopolitan ciliated protist Euplotes vannus has more than ten mating types (sexes) and shows strong resistance to environmental stresses. However, the molecular basis of its sex determination mechanism and how the cell responds to stress remain largely unknown. Here we report a combined analysis of de novo assembled high-quality macronucleus (MAC; i.e. somatic) genome and partial micronucleus (MIC; i.e. germline) genome of Euplotes vannus. Furthermore, MAC genomic and transcriptomic data from several mating types of E. vannus were investigated and gene expression levels were profiled under different environmental stresses, including nutrient scarcity, extreme temperature, salinity and the presence of free ammonia. We found that E. vannus, which possesses gene-sized nanochromosomes in its MAC, shares a similar pattern on frameshifting and stop codon usage as Euplotes octocarinatus and may be undergoing incipient sympatric speciation with Euplotes crassus. Somatic pheromone loci of E. vannus are generated from programmed DNA rearrangements of multiple germline macronuclear destined sequences (MDS) and the mating types of E. vannus are distinguished by the different combinations of pheromone loci instead of possessing mating type-specific genes. Lastly, we linked the resilience to environmental temperature change to the evolved loss of temperature stress-sensitive regulatory regions of HSP70 gene in E. vannus. Together, the genome resources generated in this study, which are available online at Euplotes vannus DB (http://evan.ciliate.org), provide new evidence for sex determination mechanism in eukaryotes and common pheromone-mediated cell-cell signaling and cross-mating.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2018

Identification and characterization of cherry (Cerasus pseudocerasus G. Don) genes in response to parthenocarpy induced by GA3 through transcriptome analysis

Fruit set after successful pollination is a key process in the production of sweet cherries, but low fruit rate is the main problem for crop production in sweet cherries. Gibberellin treatment can directly induce parthenogenesis without pollination; therefore, gibberellin treatment is a very important method to improve the fruit setting rate of sweet cherries. Exogenous gibberellin can satisfy the hormone requirement during fruit growth and development. Some related studies have mainly focused on physiological aspects, such as breeding, branching, fertilization, etc., and the molecular mechanism is not clear. In this study, we analyzed the transcriptome of Meizao sweet cherry fruit treated with gibberellin during the anthesis and hard-core period to determine the genes associated with parthenocarpic fruit set. A total of 765 and 186 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were found at anthesis and the hard-core stage after gibberellin 3 (GA3) treatment, respectively. The differentially expressed genes between the control and GA3 treatment showed that the GA3 response mainly included parthenocarpic fruit set and cell division. Exogenous gibberellin stimulated sweet cherry parthenocarpy and enlargement, which were verified by qRT-PCR results of related genes and the parthenocarpic fruit set and fruit size. Based on our research and previous studies on Arabidopsis thaliana, we identified the key genes associated with parthenocarpic fruit set and cell division. Briefly, we found patterns in the sweet cherry fruit setting-related DEGs, especially those associated with hormone balance, cytoskeleton formation and cell wall modification. Overall, the result provides a possible molecular mechanism regulating parthenocarpic fruit set, which is important for basic research and industrial development of sweet cherries.\n\nHighlightcherry genes in response to parthenocarpy and promote to fruit setting induced by GA3.

molecular biology↗

bioRxiv2018

Variation and diversification of the microbiome of Schlechtendalia chinensis on two alternate host plants

Schlechtendalia chinensis, a gall-inducing aphid, has two host plants in its life cycle. Its wintering host is a moss (typically Plagiomnium maximoviczii) and its main host is Rhus chinensis (Sumac), on which it forms galls during the summer.. This study investigated bacteria associated with S. chinensis living on the two different host plants by sequencing 16S rRNAs. A total of 183 Operational Taxonomic Units (OTUs) from 50 genera were identified from aphids living on moss, whereas 182 OTUs from 49 genera were found from aphids living in Sumac galls. The most abundant bacterial genus among identified OTUs from aphids feeding on both hosts was Buchnera. Despite similar numbers of OTUs, the composition of bacterial taxa showed significant differences between aphids living on moss and those living on R. chinensis. Specifically, there were 12 OTUs from 5 genera (family) unique to aphids living on moss, and 11 OTUs from 4 genera (family) unique to aphids feeding in galls on R. Chinensis. Principal Coordinate Analysis (PCoA) also revealed that bacteria from moss-residing aphids clustered differently from aphids collected from galls. Our results provid a foundation for future analyses on the roles of symbiotic bacteria in plant - aphid interactions in general, and how gall-specific symbionts differ in this respect.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2018

Using composite phenotypes to reveal heterogeneity and model SpO2 of altitude acclimatization

Altitude acclimatization is the physiological process of the human body adjusting to the decreased availability of oxygen. Since several physiological processes are involved and the relation among them is complicated, analyses of single-traits is insufficient in revealing the complex mechanism of altitude acclimatization. In this study, we examined whether these physiological responses could be studied as composite phenotypes which are represented by a linear combination of physiological traits. We developed a strategy which combines both spectral clustering and PLSPM to define composite phenotypes. We captured 14 composite phenotypes from 28 physiological traits of altitude acclimatization. Using these composite phenotypes, we applied k-means to reveal hidden physiological heterogeneity in altitude acclimatization. Furthermore, we employed linear regression to systematically model oxygen saturation (SpO2) changes in altitude acclimatization and evaluated the model fitness performance. And composite phenotypes based Model 2 has better fitness than single-traits based Model 1 in all measurement indices. Therefore, this new strategy of defining and applying composite phenotypes can be considered as a general strategy of complex traits.

systems biology↗

bioRxiv2018

ERVcaller: Identifying and genotyping non-reference unfixed endogenous retroviruses (ERVs) and other transposable elements (TEs) using next-generation sequencing data

MotivationApproximately 8% of the human genome is derived from endogenous retroviruses (ERVs). In recent years, an increasing number of human diseases have been found to be associated with ERVs. However, it remains challenging to accurately detect the full spectrum of polymorphic (unfixed) ERVs using next-generation sequencing (NGS) data.\n\nResultsWe designed a new tool, ERVcaller, to detect and genotype transposable element (TE) insertions, including ERVs, in the human genome. We evaluated ERVcaller using both simulated and real benchmark whole-genome sequencing (WGS) datasets. By comparing with existing tools, ERVcaller consistently obtained both the highest sensitivity and precision for detecting simulated ERV and other TE insertions derived from real polymorphic TE sequences. For the WGS data from the 1000 Genomes Project, ERVcaller detected the largest number of TE insertions per sample based on consensus TE loci. By analyzing the experimentally verified TE insertions, ERVcaller had 94.0% TE detection sensitivity and 96.6% genotyping accuracy. PCR and Sanger sequencing in a small sample set verified 86.7% of examined insertion statuses and 100% of examined genotypes. In conclusion, ERVcaller is capable of detecting and genotyping TE insertions using WGS data with both high sensitivity and precision. This tool can be applied broadly to other species.\n\nAvailabilitywww.uvm.edu/genomics/software/ERVcaller.html\n\nContactdawei.li@uvm.edu\n\nSupplementary informationSupplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2018

Early projections of Ebola outbreak size and duration with and without vaccine use in Equateur, Democratic Republic of Congo, as of May 21, 2018

BackgroundAs of May 27, 2018, 54 cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) were reported in Equateur Province, Democratic Republic of Congo. We used reported case counts and time series from prior outbreaks to estimate the current outbreak size and duration with and without vaccine use.\n\nMethodsWe modeled Ebola virus transmission using a stochastic branching process model with a negative binomial distribution, using both estimates of reproduction number R declining from supercritical to subcritical derived from past Ebola outbreaks, as well as a particle filtering method to generate a probabilistic projection of the future course of the outbreak conditioned on its reported trajectory to date; modeled using 0%, 44%, and 62% estimates of vaccination coverage. Additionally, we used the time series for 18 prior Ebola outbreaks from 1976 to 2016 to parameterize a regression model predicting the outbreak size from the number of observed cases from April 4 to May 27.\n\nResultsWith the stochastic transmission model, we projected a median outbreak size of 78 EVD cases (95% credible interval: 52, 125.4), 86 cases (95% credible interval: 53, 174.3), and 91 cases (95% credible interval: 52, 843.5), using 62%, 44%, and 0% estimates of vaccination coverage. With the regression model, we estimated a median size of 85.0 cases (95% prediction interval: 53.5, 216.6).\n\nConclusionsThis outbreak has the potential to be the largest outbreak in DRC since 2007. Vaccines are projected to limit outbreak size and duration but are only part of prevention, control, and care strategies.

epidemiology↗