Chasalow, S. D. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2022

A Community Challenge to Predict Clinical Outcomes After Immune Checkpoint Blockade in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

PurposePredictive biomarkers of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) efficacy are currently lacking for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Here, we describe the results from the Anti-PD-1 Response Prediction DREAM Challenge, a crowdsourced initiative that enabled the assessment of predictive models by using data from two randomized controlled clinical trials (RCTs) of ICIs in first-line metastatic NSCLC. MethodsParticipants developed and trained models using public resources. These were evaluated with data from the CheckMate 026 trial (NCT02041533), according to the model-to-data paradigm to maintain patient confidentiality. The generalizability of the models with the best predictive performance was assessed using data from the CheckMate 227 trial (NCT02477826). Both trials were phase III RCTs with a chemotherapy control arm, which supported the differentiation between predictive and prognostic models. Isolated model containers were evaluated using a bespoke strategy that considered the challenges of handling transcriptome data from clinical trials. ResultsA total of 59 teams participated, with 417 models submitted. Multiple predictive models, as opposed to a prognostic model, were generated for predicting overall survival, progression-free survival, and progressive disease status with ICIs. Variables within the models submitted by participants included tumor mutational burden (TMB), programmed death ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression, and gene-expression-based signatures. The bestperforming models showed improved predictive power over reference variables, including TMB or PD-L1. ConclusionThis DREAM Challenge is the first successful attempt to use protected phase III clinical data for a crowdsourced effort towards generating predictive models for ICIs clinical outcomes and could serve as a blueprint for similar efforts in other tumor types and disease states, setting a benchmark for future studies aiming to identify biomarkers predictive of ICIs efficacy. Context summaryO_ST_ABSKey objectiveC_ST_ABSNot all patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) eligible for immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICIs) respond to treatment, but accurate predictive biomarkers of ICIs clinical outcomes are currently lacking. This crowdsourced initiative enabled the robust assessment of predictive models using data from two randomized clinical trials of first-line ICI in metastatic NSCLC. Knowledge generatedModels submitted indicate that a combination of programmed death ligand 1 (PD-L1), tumor mutational burden (TMB), and immune gene signatures might be able to identify patients more likely to respond to ICIs. TMB and PD-L1 seemed important to predict progression-free survival and overall survival. Mechanisms including apoptosis, T-cell crosstalk, and adaptive immune resistance appeared essential to predict response. Relevance

cancer biology↗

bioRxiv2017

Genome-Wide Association Analysis Identifies Genetic Correlates of Immune Infiltrates in Solid Tumors.

Therapeutic options for the treatment of an increasing variety of cancers have been expanded by the introduction of a new class of drugs, commonly referred to as checkpoint blocking agents, that target the host immune system to positively modulate anti-tumor immune response. Although efficacy of these agents has been linked to a pre-existing level of tumor immune infiltrate, it remains unclear why some patients exhibit deep and durable responses to these agents therapy while others do not benefit. To examine the influence of tumor genetics on tumor immune state, we interrogated the relationship between somatic mutation and copy number alteration with infiltration levels of 7 immune cell types across 40 tumor cohorts in The Cancer Genome Atlas. Levels of cytotoxic T, regulatory T, total T, natural killer, and B cells, as well as monocytes and M2 macrophages, were estimated using a novel set of transcriptional signatures that were designed to resist interference from the cellular heterogeneity of tumors. Tumor mutational load and estimates of tumor purity were included in our association models to adjust for biases in multi-modal genomic data. Copy number alterations, mutations summarized at the gene level, and position-specific mutations were evaluated for association with tumor immune infiltration. We observed a strong relationship between copy number loss of a large region of chromosome 9p and decreased lymphocyte estimates in melanoma, pancreatic, and head/neck cancers. Mutations in the oncogenes PIK3CA, FGFR3, and RAS/RAF family members, as well as the tumor supressor TP53, were linked to changes in immune infiltration, usually in restricted tumor types. Associations of specific WNT/beta-catenin pathway genetic changes with immune state were limited, but we noted a link between 9p loss and the expression of the WNT receptor FZD3, suggesting that there are interactions between 9p alteration and WNT pathways. Finally, two different cell death regulators, CASP8 and DIDO1, were often mutated in head/neck tumors that had higher lymphocyte infiltrates. In summary, our study supports the relevance of tumor genetics to questions of efficacy and resistance in checkpoint blockade therapies. It also highlights the need to assess genome-wide influences during exploration of any specific tumor pathway hypothesized to be relevant to therapeutic response. Some of the observed genetic links to immune state, like 9p loss, may influence response to cancer immune therapies. Others, like mutations in cell death pathways, may help guide combination therapeutic approaches.

cancer biology↗