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Castillo Chavez, A.

Publications and source records attributed to Castillo Chavez, A..

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Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 mutations reveals three types of temporal dynamics and one is correlated with international travels

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a contagious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This disease has spread globally, causing more than 161.5 million cases and 3.3 million deaths to date. Surveillance and monitoring of new mutations in the virus genome are crucial to our understanding of the adaptation of SARS-CoV-2. Moreover, how the temporal dynamics of these mutations is influenced by control measures and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) is poorly understood. Using 1 058 020 SARS-CoV-2 from sequenced COVID-19 cases from 98 countries (totaling 714 country-month combinations), we perform a normalization by COVID-19 cases to calculate the relative frequency of SARS-CoV-2 mutations and explore their dynamics over time. We found 115 mutations estimated to be present in more than 3 % of global COVID-19 cases and determined three types of mutation dynamics: High-Frequency, Medium-Frequency, and Low-Frequency. Classification of mutations based on temporal dynamics enable us to examine viral adaptation and evaluate the effects of implemented control measures in virus evolution during the pandemic. We showed that Medium-Frequency mutations are characterized by high prevalence in specific regions and/or in constant competition with other mutations in several regions. Finally, taking N501Y mutation as representative of High-Frequency mutations, we showed that level of control measure stringency negatively correlates with the effective reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 with High-Frequency or not-High-Frequency and both follows similar trends in different levels of stringency.

genomics

Analysis of the Dynamics and Distribution of SARS-CoV-2 Mutations and its Possible Structural and Functional Implications

After eight months of the pandemic declaration, COVID-19 has not been globally controlled. Several efforts to control SARS-CoV-2 dissemination are still running including vaccines and drug treatments. The effectiveness of these procedures depends, in part, that the regions to which these treatments are directed do not vary considerably. Although, it is known that the mutation rate of SARS-CoV-2 is relatively low it is necessary to monitor the adaptation and evolution of the virus in the different stages of the pandemic. Thus, identification, analysis of the dynamics, and possible functional and structural implication of mutations are relevant. Here, we first estimate the number of COVID-19 cases with a virus with a specific mutation and then calculate its global relative frequency (NRFp). Using this approach in a dataset of 100 924 genomes from GISAID, we identified 41 mutations to be present in viruses in an estimated number of 750 000 global COVID-19 cases (0.03 NRFp). We classified these mutations into three groups: high-frequent, low-frequent non-synonymous, and low-frequent synonymous. Analysis of the dynamics of these mutations by month and continent showed that high-frequent mutations appeared early in the pandemic, all are present in all continents and some of them are almost fixed in the global population. On the other hand, low-frequent mutations (non-synonymous and synonymous) appear late in the pandemic and seems to be at least partially continent-specific. This could be due to that high-frequent mutation appeared early when lockdown policies had not yet been applied and low-frequent mutations appeared after lockdown policies. Thus, preventing global dissemination of them. Finally, we present a brief structural and functional review of the analyzed ORFs and the possible implications of the 25 identified non-synonymous mutations.

genomics

Worldwide Geographical and Temporal Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Haplotypes shows Differential Distribution Patterns

Since the identification of SARS-CoV-2, a large number of genomes have been sequenced with unprecedented speed around the world. This marks a unique opportunity to analyze virus spreading and evolution in a worldwide context. Currently, there is not a useful haplotype description to help to track important and globally scattered mutations. Also, differences in the number of sequenced genomes between countries and/or months make it difficult to identify the emergence of haplotypes in regions where few genomes are sequenced but a large number of cases are reported. We propose an approach based on the normalization by COVID-19 cases of relative frequencies of mutations using all the available data to identify major haplotypes. Furthermore, we can use a similar normalization approach to tracking the temporal and geographic distribution of haplotypes in the world. Using 171 461 genomes, we identify five major haplotypes (OTUs) based on nine high-frequency mutations. OTU_3 characterized by mutations R203K and G204R is currently the most frequent haplotype circulating in four of the six continents analyzed. On the other hand, during almost all months analyzed, OTU_5 characterized by the mutation T85I in nsp2 is the most frequent in North America. Recently (since September), OTU_2 has been established as the most frequent in Europe. OTU_1, the ancestor haplotype is near to extinction showed by its low number of isolations since May. Also, we analyzed whether age, gender, or patient status is more related to a specific OTU. We did not find OTUs preference for any age group, gender, or patient status. Finally, we discuss structural and functional hypotheses in the most frequently identified mutations, none of those mutations show a clear effect on the transmissibility or pathogenicity.

genomics