Using Google Trends to Examine the Spatio-Temporal Incidence and Behavioral Patterns of Dengue Disease: A Case Study in Metropolitan Manila, Philippines
Dengue is a major public health concern and an economic burden in the Philippines. Despite the countrys improved dengue surveillance, it still suffers from various setbacks and therefore needs to be complemented with alternative approaches. Previous studies have demonstrated the potential of internet-based surveillance such as Google Dengue Trends (GDT) in supplementing current epidemiological methods for predicting future dengue outbreaks and patterns. With this, our study aims to assess the temporal relationship of GDT and dengue incidence in Metropolitan Manila from previous years and examine web search behavior of the population towards the disease. The study collated and organized the population statistics and reported dengue cases in Metropolitan Manila from respective government agencies to calculate the spatial and temporal dengue incidence. The relative search volume of the term dengue and top dengue-related search queries in Metropolitan Manila were obtained and organized from the Google trends platform. Data processing of GDT and dengue incidence was performed by conducting an adjustment procedure and subsequently used for correlation and cross-correlation analyses. Moreover, a thematic analysis was employed on the top dengue-related search queries. Results revealed a high temporal relationship between GDT and dengue incidence when either one of the variables is adjusted. Cross-correlation showed that there is delayed effect (1-2 weeks) of GDT to dengue incidence, demonstrating its potential in predicting future dengue outbreaks and patterns in Metropolitan Manila. Thematic analysis of dengue-related search queries indicated 5 categories namely; (a) dengue, (b) sign and symptoms of dengue, (c) treatment and prevention, (d) mosquito and (e) other diseases where the majority of the search queries was signs and symptoms which indicate the health-seeking behavior of the population towards the disease.