Biology subjects

Caminade, C.

Publications and source records attributed to Caminade, C..

4 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Aedes albopictus and dengue transmission risk in France over the 21st century

Climate change is dramatically affecting species distribution and phenology worldwide. Its impact on arthropod vectors, such as the Aedes albopictus mosquito, has important consequences for biting nuisance and arbovirus transmission risk. Here, we assess the impact of climate change on the presence and abundance of Ae. albopictus, as well as the risk of dengue transmission over France during the 21st century. We use a mechanistic model that we adjusted against records of recent autochthonous cases of dengue in France. We simulate climatic suitability indicators, such as the adult abundance during the activity period, epidemic risk and secondary cases of dengue under different climatic and demographic scenarios at different periods up to 2085. Future simulations are based on a high-pressure scenario (high greenhouse gas emissions, high demographic growth) and a median-pressure scenario (median greenhouse gas emissions, demographic stagnation). To account for climate model uncertainty, we repeat the simulations for three different regional climate models. By 2085, in the high-pressure scenario, most of France (89-96%) will be climatically suitable for the establishment of Ae. albopictus, with the exception of mountain ranges. Similarly, autochthonous transmission of dengue will be theoretically possible in all colonized areas except over northern lowlands (71-95%). In the median pressure scenario, both climatic suitability for establishment (49-89%) and autochthonous dengue transmission risk (31-82%) exhibit large variation. Low population density areas show moderate suitability for vector establishment but exhibit the highest potential for dengue transmission. Overwintering mechanisms, such as egg diapause, indispensable for survival in temperate climates, may not be necessary along the Mediterranean and Basque coasts, allowing activity of the vector all year-round in the future.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Aedes albopictus is rapidly invading its climatic niche in France: wider implications for biting nuisance and arbovirus control in Western Europe

The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is a competent vector of arboviruses, such as dengue. After its introduction into southern Europe, this invasive species has been rapidly spreading as well as causing autochthonous cases of arboviral diseases. Both Ae. albopictus presence and potential to transmit arboviruses are facilitated at warm temperatures, hence global warming is expected to affect their presence in temperate regions. We use a climate- and environmental-driven mechanistic modelling framework to investigate the impact of recent climate change on Ae. albopictus range expansion and its potential to transmit dengue in Western Europe. We simulate climatic suitability, adult density and dengue transmission risk which we compare with a large ensemble of entomological and epidemiological observations over the past 20 years. Most importantly, we analyze a novel spatiotemporal dataset of colonized municipalities in metropolitan France to estimate the spread rate of Ae. albopictus and compare it with model predictions. Lastly, we analyze the sensitivity of entomological and epidemiological risk to changes in temperature, rainfall and human density. Distribution of simulated mosquito populations and dengue transmission risk satisfactorily match entomological and dengue observations for Western Europe (AUC = 0.90 and 0.75 respectively). While lowlands in southern Europe were already climatically suitable for hosting Ae. albopictus around 2010, Western France, together with large populated cities, such as London, Zagreb and Vienna, have become suitable recently. Importantly, the accelerating colonization of Ae. albopictus in France may be approaching the limit of its theoretical climatic niche; future expansion will depend on the climate-driven enlargement of suitable areas. Area at risk of dengue transmission has recently expanded from the Mediterranean coasts over northern Spain and Western France. The sensitivity analysis suggests that climate change may expose medium-sized cities to the highest epidemiological risk; this finding is consistent with recently reported dengue outbreaks in Europe.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

The invasions of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Cyprus: current situation, risk modelling and public health implications for the wider Eastern Mediterranean region.

The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus and the yellow fever mosquito, Aedes aegypti have been spreading worldwide and are reshaping the distribution of arboviruses. Both Aedes species have recently been observed in densely populated cities of Cyprus, a touristic island that is a historic bridge between Europe and Asia. Given the high public health stakes for Cyprus and the wider East Mediterranean region, the objectives of this study are three-fold. First, we present a novel delimitation strategy using spatially dense networks of ovitraps deployed in 500x500m cells in Limassol and Larnaca following the detection of Aedes species. Second, we use a dynamical vector model to estimate the potential of both species to spread further over Cyprus. Finally, we employ a basic reproduction number (R0) model to assess the potential transmission risk of arboviruses for the wider East Mediterranean region. Our results underline our delimitation strategys usefulness in delineating Ae. albopictus populations in Limassol and indicate the need for increased surveillance efforts for Ae. aegypti in Larnaca. Our vector model reveals that cities such as Nicosia, Paphos and Ayia Napa are climatically suitable for the establishment of both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Finally, the R0 model captures historical hotspots of dengue transmission over the East Mediterranean region, with large R0 values simulated over Cyprus, Greece, Turkey, southern Italy and southern Spain. We recommend stringent vector surveillance at entry points in Greece and a rapid elimination in Cyprus to prevent the return of Ae. aegypti to the European continent.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Modelling the impact of climate change on the distribution and abundance of tsetse in Northern Zimbabwe

Background Climate change is predicted to impact the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases. Tsetse flies (Glossina) transmit species of Trypanosoma that cause human and animal African trypanosomiasis. A previous modelling study showed that temperature increases between 1990 and 2017 can explain the observed decline in abundance of tsetse at a single site in the Mana Pools National Park of Zimbabwe. Here, we apply a mechanistic model of tsetse population dynamics to predict how increases in temperature may have changed the distribution and relative abundance of Glossina pallidipes across northern Zimbabwe.Methods Local weather station temperature measurements were previously used to fit the mechanistic model to longitudinal G. pallidipes catch data. To extend the use of the model, we converted MODIS land surface temperature to air temperature, compared the converted temperatures with available weather station data to confirm they aligned, and then re-fitted the mechanistic model using G. pallidipes catch data and air temperature estimates. We projected this fitted model across northern Zimbabwe, using simulations at a 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution, between 2000 to 2016.Results We produce estimates of relative changes in G. pallidipes mortality, larviposition, emergence rates and abundance, for northern Zimbabwe. Our model predicts decreasing tsetse populations within low elevation areas in response to increasing temperature trends during 2000-2016. Conversely, we show that high elevation areas (>1000 M.A.S.L), previously considered too cold to sustain tsetse, may now be climatically suitable.Conclusions The results of this research represent the first regional-scale assessment of temperature related tsetse population dynamics, and the first high spatial-resolution estimates of this metric for northern Zimbabwe. Our results suggest that tsetse abundance may have declined across much of the Zambezi valley in response to changing climatic conditions during the study period. Future research including empirical studies is planned to improve model accuracy and validate predictions for other field sites in Zimbabwe.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.View Full Text

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