The Statistical Building Blocks of Animal Movement Simulations
Animal movement plays a key role in many ecological processes and has a direct influence on an individuals fitness at several scales of analysis (i.e., next-step, subdiel, day-by-day, seasonal). This high-lights the need to dissect movement behavior at different spatio-temporal scales and develop hierarchical movement tools for generating realistic tracks to supplement existing single-temporal-scale simulators. In reality, animal movement paths are a concatenation of fundamental movement elements (FuMEs: e.g., a step or wing flap), but these are not generally extractable from a relocation time-series track (e.g., sequential GPS fixes) from which step-length (SL, aka velocity) and turning-angle (TA) time series can be extracted. For short, fixed-length segments of track, we generate their SL and TA statistics (e.g., means, standard deviations, correlations) to obtain segment-specific vectors that can be cluster into different types. We use the centroids of these clusters to obtain a set of statistical movement elements (StaMEs; e.g. directed fast movement versus random slow movement elements) that we use as a basis for analyzing and simulating movement tracks. Our novel concept is that sequences of StaMEs provide a basis for constructing and fitting step-selection kernels at the scale of fixed-length canonical activity modes: short fixed-length sequences of interpretable activity such as dithering, ambling, directed walking, or running. Beyond this, variable length pure or characteristic mixtures of CAMs can be interpreted as behavioral activity modes (BAMs), such as gathering resources (a sequence of dithering and walking StaMEs) or beelining (a sequence of fast directed-walk StaMEs interspersed with vigilance and navigation stops). Here we formulate a multi-modal, step-selection kernel simulation framework, and construct a 2-mode movement simulator (Numerus ANIMOVER_1), using Numerus RAMP technology. We also illustrate methods for extracting StaMEs from both simulated and real data from two barn owls (Tyto alba) in the Harod Valley, Israel. Overall, our new bottom-up approach to path segmentation allows us to both dissect real movement tracks and generate realistic synthetic ones, thereby providing a general tool for testing hypothesis in movement ecology and simulating animal movement in diverse contexts such as evaluating an individuals response to landscape changes, release of an individual into a novel environment, or identifying when individuals are sick or unusually stressed.