Biology subjects

Burgess, M. D.

Publications and source records attributed to Burgess, M. D..

4 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Thermal niche tracking in thirteen British temperate passerines

Identifying how and why species vary in their ability to adjust to rapidly changing climates is a key challenge in ecology. While phenological shifts are well documented for birds and often studied in the context of tracking resource availability, less is known about the extent to which adjustments in phenology allow populations to track a consistent thermal niche. In particular, there has been little examination of how the extent of phenological thermal niche tracking compares over time versus space; a comparison that has the potential to inform on the underlying mechanisms. Here, we use data on breeding phenology derived from BTO Nest Record Scheme data, to examine the extent to which 13 passerine bird species track a consistent incubation thermal niche across years (both interannually and a year gradient) and along latitudinal and elevational gradients, and whether migrant and resident species differ in their tracking ability. Overall, we found support across species for partial tracking, with all species showing trends consistent with partial tracking across one or more axis, though for one species we could not reject the null hypothesis of no tracking. When we looked at average trends across species, we found significant tracking across interannual variation, latitude, and elevation, but not across a year trend. However, we found no evidence that tracking differs between residents and migrants, and for only a few species did we found evidence that species incubation thermal niche impacts on fitness. Taken together, our findings highlight the extent to which shifts in phenology can allow birds to track a thermal niche in a changing climate. The timing of a thermal niche provides a useful and widely-applicable yardstick to examine how changes in climate will impact on the abiotic conditions that populations experience.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Continent-wide drivers of spatial synchrony in age structure across wild great tit populations

Spatio-temporal variation in age structure influences population dynamics, yet we have limited understanding of the spatial scale at which its fluctuations are synchronised between populations. Using 32 great tit populations, spanning 3200km and >130,000 birds across 67 years, we quantify spatial synchrony in breeding age structure and its drivers. We show that larger clutch sizes, colder winters and summers, and larger beech crops lead to younger populations. We report distant-dependent spatial synchrony of age structure, which is maintained at approximately 650km. Despite covariation with age structure, reproductive and environmental variables do not influence the scale of synchrony, except for a moderate effect of beech masting. We suggest that local ecological and density-dependent dynamics impact how environmental variation interacts with age structure, influencing estimates of the environments effect on spatial synchrony. Our analyses demonstrate the operation of synchrony in age structure over large scales, with implications for age-dependent demography in populations.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Territory-level temperature influences settlement decisions, breeding phenology and productivity in three forest passerine birds

Temperature plays an important role in determining breeding phenology of temperate birds, with higher spring temperatures associated with earlier breeding. However, the effect of localised territory-scale temperature variations is poorly understood, with relationships between temperature and breeding phenology mostly studied using coarse-grained climatic indices. Here, we interpolate spring temperatures recorded at 150 m2 grid intersections encompassing 417 ha of forest to examine the influence of territory-scale temperature, and its interaction with mean annual temperature, on territory selection, breeding phenology, clutch size and fledgling success for three co-occurring single-brooded passerine birds using data from 672 nests over four years. All species exhibited significant trends in reproductive traits associated with territory-scale temperature. Pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca settled in cooler territories first, where they raised more fledglings. Blue tits Cyanistes caeruleus laid larger clutches in warmer territories in warm years and always laid earlier at warmer territories irrespective of annual temperature variation. Contrastingly, pied flycatcher and wood warbler Phylloscopus sibilatrix breeding phenology was earlier at warmer territories in cool years and cooler territories in warm years, with wood warbler clutch size responding similarly to this interaction. Greater previous breeding experience and increased higher rates of historical territory occupancy (territory quality) also predicted earlier breeding phenology and higher fledging success for pied flycatchers. We suggest that the migratory pied flycatcher and wood warbler are best synchronised with their prey availability in cooler years at a local population level while resident blue tits match local phenology across all years, which is potentially advantageous under warmer predicted climate change scenarios. We conclude that temperature at the territory scale can be an important driver of settlement and breeding phenology and influence reproductive traits.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Bird populations most exposed to climate change are less responsive to climatic variation

The phenology of many species shows strong sensitivity to climate change; however, with few large scale intra-specific studies it is unclear how such sensitivity varies over a species range. We document large intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity to temperature using laying date information from 67 populations of two European songbirds covering a large part of their breeding range. Populations inhabiting deciduous habitats showed stronger phenological sensitivity compared with those in evergreen and mixed habitats. Strikingly, however, the lowest sensitivity was seen in populations that had experienced the greatest change in climate. Therefore, we predict that the strongest phenological advancement will not occur in those populations with the highest sensitivity. Our results show that to effectively assess the impact of climate change on phenology across a species range it will be necessary to account for intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity, climate change exposure, and the ecological characteristics of a population.

ecology↗