bioRxiv2026
Mosquito-borne viruses are emerging in new regions with increasing regularity. Shifting climatic envelopes, especially in temperate regions, and altered enzootic cycles are changing likelihoods of persistence, meaning new approaches are required to predict and monitor establishment. Usutu virus (USUV) is a mosquito-borne viral zoonosis, which was first recorded in the United Kingdom in wild birds and mosquitoes in 2020. By developing a multidisciplinary approach, incorporating enhanced passive and active surveillance of wild birds, we discovered previously unrecorded introductions and identified USUV persistence and geographic expansion. By combining molecular and serological testing with citizen science derived datasets, we show an associated marked decline in a common, widespread, and highly susceptible host species (Eurasian Blackbird, Turdus merula). However, the clearest continuous signal of host population decline remains localised to a large urban area, despite the much wider virus distribution. This may be a consequence of an urban heat island effect and associated increase in length of the mosquito active season. Our results indicate that the establishment and impact of future mosquito-borne pathogens in temperate zones, anticipated under climate change, may first be most apparent in urban areas. Consequently, enhanced surveillance efforts in urban areas could provide an efficient mechanism for detecting novel pathogen emergence. The epidemiology of emerging vector-borne diseases, especially in temperate areas, depends on the interplay between climate, land-use and available hosts; therefore, considering each in isolation will not be sufficient to reliably inform surveillance or response planning.