Brito-Morales, I. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2025

Megafauna show pervasive yet distinct affinity to ocean fronts: the urgent need for adaptive conservation in a warming world

Fronts are ephemeral structures in the ocean that mark the boundaries between water masses of different properties, attracting a wide range of marine organisms, from plankton to whales. Despite their fundamental role in marine ecosystem functioning, the association with biodiversity has mainly focused on single species in regions with high data availability. Here, using multidecadal datasets on dynamical and thermal fronts, satellite tracking, and aerial observations, we assess marine megafauna associations with ocean fronts in the ecologically rich yet highly turbulent Mozambique Channel. We find that a diverse array of species associate with various ocean fronts, although the strength and type of affinity vary across taxa. Downscaled climate change simulations predict significant spatial shifts in front-rich areas by the end of the century. As climate change reshapes ocean front dynamics, adaptive management strategies will be essential to balance conservation and resource use in these critical ecosystems. TeaserOcean fronts attract marine megafauna, but climate change might alter these habitats, requiring adaptive conservation strategies.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Incorporating climate velocity into the design of climate-smart networks of protected areas

Climate change is redistributing terrestrial and marine biodiversity and altering fundamental ecological interactions. To adequately conserve biodiversity and promote its long-term persistence, protected areas should account for the ecological implications of species redistribution. Data paucity across many systems means that achieving this goal requires generic metrics that represent likely responses of multiple taxa to climate change. Climate velocity is one such metric, reflecting potential species range shifts at a generic level. Here, we explore four approaches to incorporating climate velocity metrics into the design of protected areas using the Mediterranean Sea as an illustrative example. Our methods are designed to meet two climate-smart planning objectives: 1) protect climate refugia by selecting slow-moving climate velocity areas, and 2) maintain the capacity of ecological systems to adapt by representing a suite of climate-velocity trajectory classes. We found that incorporating climate velocity as a cost measure in Marxan is the best approach for selecting slower-moving areas, which are good indicators of climate refugia. However, this approach fails to accommodate socio-economic cost data, and is probably impractical. Incorporating climate velocity as a boundary or as a feature provides both selection of slower-moving areas and solutions with lower socio-economic cost. Finally, we were able to design cost-effective networks of protected areas representing a suite of climate-velocity trajectories classes, which have the potential to help species adapt to a changing climate. This work presents simple and practical ways of including climate velocity in conservation plans on land and in the ocean to achieve the key climate-smart objectives of protecting climate refugia and enhancing ecological resilience.

ecology↗