Biology subjects

Breed, A. C.

Publications and source records attributed to Breed, A. C..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Forecasting high pathogenicity avian influenza with a stochastic mechanistic model: performance and lessons for Australia

High pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b has caused a global panzootic with unprecedented impacts on wildlife and livestock, making evidence-based disease mitigation and outbreak response critical. In this paper, we describe a spatiotemporal mechanistic model of infectious disease dynamics developed for the HPAI Modelling Challenge and its implications for forecasting and policy in Australia. To emulate emergency response conditions, we adapted an existing model for rapid deployment rather than developing a bespoke model. We refined the model iteratively across the challenge to better analyse the provided outbreak data. Throughout the challenge, we accurately forecast temporal trends and local outbreak spread, but could not predict rarer, long-distance dispersal events. The challenge ended before HPAI H5N1 was first detected in Australia (June 2026), providing a critical opportunity to test our response modelling readiness for an incursion in wildlife and potential spillover into commercial poultry. Our experience identifies three key considerations for Australia's HPAI H5N1 preparedness: targeted enhancements to our model to improve forecast precision and enable scenario-based policy evaluation; the critical value of pre-existing modelling infrastructure for rapid emergency response; and sustained collaboration between research and policy institutions to align modelling capabilities with outbreak response requirements.

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2025

Ecology of low pathogenicity avian influenza virus H7 in wild birds in south-eastern Australia prior to emergence of high pathogenicity avian influenza H7 in poultry

Adding to the global burden of high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1, an unprecedented five HPAI H7 outbreaks occurred globally in 2024. Of these, three occurred in southeast Australia, with the independent emergence of HPAI H7N9, H7N8, and H7N3, resulting in the destruction of 2 million poultry. Historical data demonstrates that H7 outbreaks in Australia do not occur randomly, rather, there is a strong association between the timing of the previous H7 outbreaks and rainfall patterns in southeastern Australia. We aimed to address a hypothesis wherein prior to H7 outbreaks in poultry, there was a detectable change in H7 prevalence and/or virus diversity in wild bird populations. We addressed this using virological and serological surveillance data generated from multiple programs. Despite the collection of thousands of samples, there was only weak evidence to support our hypothesis, which provides strong incentive to evaluate current surveillance approaches for the purposes of risk prediction. However, in alignment with a previous analysis, there is strong support for a relationship between H7 outbreak probability and rainfall patterns across southeast Australia. Overall, improved understanding of the ecology and evolution of H5 and H7 viruses in wild bird reservoirs is pivotal to global disease preparedness and response.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2021

Novel Hendra virus variant detected by sentinel surveillance of Australian horses.

A novel Hendra virus (HeV) variant, not detected by routine testing, was identified and isolated from a Queensland horse that suffered acute, fatal disease consistent with HeV infection. Whole genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis demonstrated the variant to have ~83% nucleotide identity to the prototype HeV strain. An updated RT-qPCR assay was designed for routine HeV surveillance. In silico and in vitro comparison of the receptor-binding protein with prototypic HeV showed that the human monoclonal antibody m102.4 used for post-exposure prophylaxis, as well as the current equine vaccine, should be effective against this variant. Genetic similarity of this virus to sequences detected from grey-headed flying-foxes suggests the variant circulates at-least in this species. Studies determining infection kinetics, pathogenicity, reservoir-species associations, viral-host co-evolution and spillover dynamics for this virus are urgently needed. Surveillance and biosecurity practices should be updated to appreciate HeV spillover risk across all regions frequented by flying foxes.

molecular biology↗