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Branciamore, S.

Publications and source records attributed to Branciamore, S..

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Allosteric pathways govern Gα protein coupling selectivity at promiscuous GPCRs

G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) regulate diverse physiological responses by engaging distinct heterotrimeric G proteins, yet the basis of G selectivity in promiscuous receptors remains unclear. Although ligand bias holds therapeutic promise, selectivity has been assumed to reside mainly in the ligand-binding site (LBS) or G protein interface (GPI). Here, we combine whole-receptor mutagenesis, functional G protein assays, molecular dynamics simulations, interpretable machine learning method, and Bayesian network modeling to identify residue networks governing Gq/11 and G12/13 coupling and to define the molecular basis of G protein preference and promiscuity at two vasopressor GPCRs, the angiotensin II type 1 and prostaglandin F2 receptors. While residues within the LBS and GPI domains contribute to coupling efficiency and subtype discrimination, we find that long-range allosteric communication across the receptor, including from structurally unresolved domains, is the principal determinant of G protein preference and promiscuity. These allosteric pathways integrate multiple receptor domains, confer signaling robustness to mutation, and hierarchically govern coupling preferences. Our findings suggest that G protein selectivity is an allosterically encoded property of GPCRs and provide a conceptual framework for designing ligands and receptors with tailored G protein-biased signaling.

pharmacology and toxicology↗

Interpretable Machine Learning Model of Receptor Dynamics Reveals AT1R Allostery and a Negative Allosteric Modulator

Allosteric modulation of G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) offers major advantages in receptor selectivity and signaling control; yet systematic approaches to identify allosteric modulators, define their binding sites, and map the underlying allosteric networks remain limited. Current molecular dynamics (MD) and machine learning (ML)-based methods often rely on correlation-driven or black-box models that provide limited mechanistic insight. We developed an interpretable probabilistic framework that extracts residue-level dependencies from MD ensembles using Bayesian network modeling (BNM). By representing each residue through its local interaction energy, BNM identifies both local and long-range energetic couplings and maps the allosteric communication pathways linking the AngII binding site to the G-protein interface in the angiotensin II type 1 receptor (AT1R). To functionally prioritize these pathways, we integrated BNM with comprehensive mutational analysis, combining whole-receptor alanine mutagenesis data with exhaustive in silico deep mutational scanning to validate BNM-predicted hotspots. This approach recovered state-dependent allosteric communities, revealed residues in noncanonical regions that regulate Gq coupling and identified positions whose functional importance emerged only with specific, predicted substitutions, as well as highlighted a cryptic intracellular pocket enriched in communication hubs. Guided by these network-derived residues and pocket geometries, structure-based virtual screening identified a small, fragment-like molecule negative allosteric modulator (NAM) named Q2 that attenuates AngII-mediated Gq signaling. Mutational mapping supports Q2 binding adjacent to the G-protein interface, consistent with its mechanism of action. Together, these results establish a generalizable and interpretable framework for uncovering GPCR allosteric communication networks and discovering modulators that exploit these networks.

molecular biology↗

Multiomic State-Transitions Reveal Post-Treatment Transcriptome Desynchronization in Acute Myeloid Leukemia

Temporal dynamics of the peripheral blood transcriptome are crucial for understanding leukemia evolution and response to therapy because they can reveal how gene expression programs drive abnormal cell states, disease heterogeneity, and treatment resistance. Using a mathematical model of state-transitions, we studied the temporal dynamics of peripheral blood messenger RNA (mRNA) and microRNA (miRNA) transcriptomes in a mouse model of acute myeloid leukemia (AML). In our state-transition model, mRNA and miRNA transcriptomes are represented as a particle undergoing Brownian motion in a two-dimensional multiomic potential landscape. Following chemotherapy, we observed a temporal desynchronization between mRNA and miRNA transcriptomic responses corresponding to an asymmetric shift in the landscape. Specifically, mRNA trajectories responded almost immediately post-treatment, whereas miRNA responses were delayed by approximately two weeks. Clustering analysis identified that the temporal delay is driven by a prominent cluster of miRNAs from the imprinted Dlk1-Dio3 region. Although previously implicated in acute promyelocytic leukemia, lymphomas, and metabolic dysregulation, this provides the first evidence linking the Dlk1-Dio3 locus to AML chemotherapy response and treatment-induced transcriptomic desynchronization. This framework offers an innovative dynamics-based strategy to identify biological drivers of therapeutic response and novel therapeutic targets across hematological malignancies. Key PointsO_LITreatment can induce desynchronization between messenger RNA and microRNA transcriptome dynamics in a murine model of AML C_LIO_LIMicroRNAs from the imprinted Dlk1-Dio3 locus are identified as key contributors to desynchronization and may serve as therapeutic targets C_LI

cancer biology↗

Integrating computational chemistry and machine learning to predict KRAS mutation-induced resistance

Mutation-induced drug resistance is a major contributor to the failure of targeted cancer therapies, particularly in tumors driven by mutations in the KRAS oncogene. Although covalent inhibitors effectively target KRAS G12C, secondary mutations such as G12C/Y96C, G12C/Y96S, and G12C/Y96D lead to resistance despite leaving the covalent attachment site intact. To predict these resistance outcomes, we developed a computational framework that integrates molecular dynamics-derived structural, energetic, thermodynamic, and contact-based descriptors with machine learning. Features extracted from simulations of treatment-sensitive and treatment-resistant KRAS mutants were used to train logistic regression, random forest, support vector machine, and Bayesian Network classifiers, achieving average accuracies above 90%. Solvent-accessible surface area variability, Lennard-Jones 1,4 energy, mean square displacement, and root mean square fluctuation emerged as the most discriminatory features. Residues G10, E62, and H95 showed the highest predictive value. This approach highlights conformational and solvent-exposure changes as central drivers of KRAS drug resistance and provides a generalizable workflow for other clinically relevant mutant targets. Author SummaryMutation-induced resistance is a common challenge across many cancer types and is often associated with aggressive tumor progression and poor therapeutic response. Investigating the dynamic properties of proteins harboring such mutations provides valuable insights into the structural and functional consequences of these alterations, thereby helping to elucidate the mechanisms of drug resistance. Machine learning algorithms are particularly effective at uncovering complex patterns within high-dimensional data, such as molecular dynamics simulation trajectories. Integrating these algorithms with analysis of protein dynamics holds significant potential to aid in drug discovery challenges by reducing both time and resource demands while increasing the likelihood of identifying effective therapeutic candidates. As a proof of concept, we developed a computational framework that integrates molecular dynamics-derived molecular features with machine learning to distinguish treatment-sensitive from treatment-resistant KRAS mutants. KRAS is known for drug resistance arising from secondary mutations that disrupt inhibitor binding despite intact covalent attachment sites. The models achieved over 90% accuracy and identified solvent-exposure and conformational changes at residues G10, E62, and H95 as key predictors of treatment resistance. This workflow offers a generalizable strategy for understanding and forecasting mutation-induced resistance.

biophysics↗

Conserved Residues in the Gα interface show subtype specificity in Gβγ coupling

Although the structural basis of selective G-protein coupling to G protein coupled receptors (GPCRs) is well characterized, the mechanisms underlying selective interactions between distinct G subtypes (Gs, Gi, Gq, and G12/13) and G{beta}{gamma} remain poorly understood. While conserved residues in G subtypes are often assumed to have similar functions, they may instead modulate coupling selectivity by altering the frequency and stability of contacts at the G:G{beta}{gamma} interface. Using molecular dynamics (MD) simulations combined with the interpretable machine learning method, Bayesian Network Model (BNM), and protein-protein proximity (BRET) assays, we show that conserved residues in the two closely related Gi/o and Gq/11 subfamilies contribute differentially to G{beta}{gamma} coupling. These conserved residue "hotspots" on Gi and Gq produced divergent functional effects on G{beta}{gamma} coupling, indicating that conservation does not ensure functional equivalence. These findings suggest that local microenvironment and paralog-specific allosteric coupling shape how conserved interface residues contribute to protein-protein coupling. The framework provides a systematic approach for dissecting subtype-specific mechanisms, with implications for drug design and for annotating the functional relevance of disease-associated variants. The computational methods used here are broadly applicable to other homologous protein families.

molecular biology↗

Allostery between distant structural regions dictates selectivity in GPCR:G protein coupling.

Selectivity in GPCR-G protein coupling is widely regarded as a solved problem that derives from a combination of structural hotspot pairings and dynamics at the protein-protein interface. Here, using interpretable machine learning Bayesian Network model with Molecular Dynamics simulations and experiments, we reveal the influence of distant residue communities within the G protein core on coupling selectivity. We observed distinct cooperative hotspot residues across different G protein subtypes, including key regions such as the N-terminus, h4s6 loop, and H5 helix. These results demonstrate the intricate allosteric dependencies between the core and the H5 helix in stabilizing selective interactions. The functional significance of these cooperative regions is validated through subtype swapping mutations. By introducing targeted Gq like mutations in the Gs core, we successfully altered receptor coupling profile to signal through Gq. Our findings emphasize that cooperative interactions in the G core are not only crucial for selectivity but can also be leveraged to engineer G proteins with tailored coupling preferences. TeaserAllosteric interactions in the G protein core shape GPCR selectivity and can be engineered to rewire receptor signaling preferences.

biophysics↗

DRUMBEAT: Temporally resolved interpretable machine learning model for characterizing state transitions in protein dynamics

Conformational transitions are central to protein function, yet their mechanistic analysis remains challenging due to the multi-dimensionality and timescales underlying the molecular motions. While interpretable network models such as Bayesian networks have advanced the identification of key residue interactions in molecular dynamics (MD) data, they lack temporal resolution and cannot capture the sequence of events during transitions. Here, we introduce Dynamically Resolved Universal Model for BayEsiAn network Tracking or DRUMBEAT, a machine learning approach that combines a universal graph topology with sliding-window rescoring to generate interpretable, time-resolved maps of cooperative events in MD trajectories. Applying DRUMBEAT to the benchmark Fip35 WW domain folding trajectories from DE Shaw Research Group, we recover both major folding pathways and critical residues previously highlighted by experiment. Importantly, DRUMBEAT provides new insight in two ways: (1) uncover unknown protein features important for transition, and (2) dissect the order and timing of conformational changes, revealing the precise sequence of residue contact closures during individual folding events. Robustness analysis demonstrates that both the universal graph and time-resolved results are highly consistent across multiple sampling replicates. These findings establish DRUMBEAT as a scalable and interpretable machine learning framework for dissecting the dynamics of protein folding and other conformational transitions, offering a generalizable tool for the mechanistic study of biomolecular dynamics.

biochemistry↗

Protein Frustration Reveals Active Sites in Co-Evolved GPCR:G Protein Complexes and in Engineered Targeted Degrader Complexes

The folded structure of a protein is understood to be an optimal energy state. However, previous studies have shown that certain amino acid residue positions that play a critical role in protein function are often in a suboptimal energy state or "frustrated". Here, we leverage over 1200 three-dimensional structures of G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) to demonstrate that residues at the interface between GPCR and its ligand or G protein contain a higher density of frustrated residues compared to other structural regions in the receptor. Likewise, the G subunit of the trimeric G proteins shows multiple clusters of highly frustrated residues on its surface that overlap with their effector protein (G{beta}{gamma}, RGS, Adenyl cyclase, Ric8) binding interfaces. Compared to the co-evolved GPCR:G protein complexes, engineered protein complexes, such as those facilitated by molecular degraders, show a much greater density of highly frustrated residues in the degrader interface. Our study highlights the use of protein frustration as an invaluable tool to evaluate both native protein-protein interfaces and design strategies to facilitate engineered protein complexes.

biophysics↗

Overcoming treatment resistance mediated by the bone marrow vascular niche in acute myeloid leukemia

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a hematologic malignancy originating in the bone marrow, frequently progressing to extramedullary sites. Despite advances in molecularly targeted therapies and hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, clinical outcomes remain suboptimal. Tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) confer benefit in a subset of AML patients harboring FLT3-ITD mutations, yet relapse and resistance are common. These failures are driven by both intrinsic properties of leukemic stem cells (LSCs)--a quiescent, self-renewing population--and extrinsic cues from the tumor microenvironment. We previously demonstrated that arteriolar endothelial cells (ECs) produce miR-126, which is transferred to LSCs, promoting quiescence, treatment resistance, and niche retention. During disease progression, TNF- secreted by expanding blasts suppresses EC miR-126 production, enabling LSCs and their progeny to proliferate. Following TKI administration, blast reduction lowers TNF- levels, restoring EC miR-126 production and enabling LSCs to re-enter quiescence--thereby escaping therapy and facilitating relapse. To investigate this dynamic, we developed an agent-based computational model of the AML bone marrow microenvironment, parameterized with in vitro and in vivo data. The model captures vascular niche remodeling and the feedback between leukemic populations and endothelial signaling. Simulations reveal that LSC protection mediated by miR-126 can be overcome by combining TKIs with miRisten, a miR-126 inhibitor. When administered on a defined schedule, this combination disrupts the protective niche and enhances LSC eradication. These findings underscore the therapeutic potential of targeting microenvironmental feedback to overcome resistance and prevent AML relapse.

cancer biology↗

Longitudinal single cell RNA-sequencing reveals evolution of micro- and macro-states in chronic myeloid leukemia

Single cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) has revolutionized our understanding of cancer, yet identifying meaningful disease states from single cell data remains challenging. Here, we systematically explore the chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) specific information content encoded in single cell versus bulk transcriptomics to resolve this paradox and clarify how discrete disease-defining states emerge from inherently noisy single cell data. We demonstrate that, while CML single cell transcriptomes exist along continuous transcriptional microstates, clinically relevant leukemia phenotypes clearly manifest only at the pseudobulk (macrostate) level. By leveraging state-transition theory, we reveal how robust disease phenotype state-transitions are governed by cell type specific contributions. Our results establish a theoretical framework explaining why discrete disease phenotypes remain hidden at the single cell scale but emerge clearly at the aggregated macrostate level, enabling previously inaccessible biological insights into leukemia evolution. By resolving how single-cell variation aggregates into macroscopic disease states, our framework provides new insight into CML progression and offers a broadly applicable strategy for exploring disease dynamics across cancers and other complex conditions.

systems biology↗

Lymphocytes and monocytes undergo swift suppression of IL-10R, IL-6R, and IL-2Rβγ signaling under high concentrations of different cytokines

The JAK-STAT signaling pathway is fundamental for immune system regulation. It involves phosphorylation of several types of STAT proteins in response to binding of cytokines to immune cell receptors. Traditionally, the immune signaling studies focus on measuring the levels of phosphorylated STATs (pSTATs) following individual cytokine application. We developed an experimental approach, based on multiparametric flow cytometry, to simultaneously measure the levels of five pSTATs after 15 minutes of cell treatment with high doses of individual cytokines and their paired combinations. Analysis of our experimental data involving peripheral blood mononuclear cells from healthy donors reveals systematic suppression of IL-10R, IL-6R, and IL-2R{beta}{gamma} signaling in T cells, B cells, NK cells, and monocytes. This suppression is mediated by at least all tested cytokines that do not induce relevant pSTATs by themselves. Remarkably, the cytokines with negligible own signaling do act as prominent selective signaling suppressors. In contrast, the signaling of IFNAR, IFNGR, IL-4R, and IL-2R{beta}{gamma} remains largely unaffected by co-application of other cytokines. We propose that this pattern of signaling suppression represents an evolutionary developed mechanism enhancing the promptness, specialization, and efficiency of the immune response, while increased concentration of cytokines serves as a danger signal of inefficient response. We hypothesize that selective signaling suppression arises from the differential sensitivity of conformations of cytokine-receptor complexes to the increase of cell surface tension and stiffness, which is caused by effects following the binding of cytokines to membrane-associated molecules, including glycocalyx elements. While the rewiring of immune cell signaling should represent a powerful evolutionary tool for augmentation of adaptive response, it should also lead to the prolonged suppression of counteracting signaling pathways, culminating in cytokine release syndrome and contributing to autoimmune diseases.

immunology↗

Temporally Resolved and Interpretable Machine Learning Model of GPCR Conformational Transition

Identifying target-specific drugs remains a challenge in pharmacology, especially for highly homologous proteins such as dopamine receptors D2R and D3R. Differences in target-specific cryptic druggable sites for such receptors arise from the distinct conformational ensembles underlying their dynamic behavior. While Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations has emerged as a powerful tool for dissecting protein dynamics, the sheer volume of MD data requires scalable and unbiased data analysis strategies to pinpoint residue communities regulating conformational state ensembles. We have developed the Dynamically Resolved Universal Model for BayEsiAn network Tracking (DRUMBEAT) interpretable machine learning algorithm and validated it by identifying residue communities that enable the deactivation of the {beta}2-adrenergic receptor. Further, upon analyzing dopamine receptor dynamics we identified distinct and non-conserved residue communities around the contacts F1704.62_F172ECL2 and S1464.38_G14134.56 that are specific to D3R conformational transitions compared to D2R. This information can be tapped to design subtype-specific drugs for neuropsychiatric and substance use disorders.

biochemistry↗

Ligand Discrimination in Immune Cells: Signal Processing Insights into Immune Dysfunction in ER+ Breast Cancer

Prior studies have shown that approximately 40% of estrogen receptor positive (ER+) breast cancer (BC) patients harbor immune signaling defects in their blood at diagnosis, and the presence of these defects predicts overall survival. Therefore, it is of interest to quantitatively characterize and measure signaling errors in immune signaling systems in these patients. Here we propose a novel approach combining communication theory and signal processing concepts to model ligand discrimination in immune cells in the peripheral blood. We use the model to measure the specificity of ligand discrimination in the presence of molecular noise by estimating the probability of error, which is the probability of making a wrong ligand identification. We apply our model to the JAK/STAT signaling pathway using high dimensional spectral flow cytometry measurements of transcription factors, including phosphorylated STATs and SMADs, in immune cells stimulated with several cytokines (IFN{gamma}, IL-2, IL-6, IL-4, and IL-10) from 19 ER+ breast cancer patients and 32 healthy controls. In addition, we apply our model to 10 healthy donor samples treated with a clinically approved JAK1/2 inhibitor. Our results show reduced ligand identification accuracy and higher levels of molecular noise in BC patients as compared to healthy controls, which may indicate altered immune signaling and the potential for immune cell dysfunction in these patients. Moreover, the inhibition of JAK1/2 produces ligand misidentification and molecular noise rates similar to, or even greater than, those observed in breast cancer. These results suggest a means to improve the use of signaling kinase inhibitor therapies by identifying patients with favorable ligand discrimination specificity profiles in their immune cells. One Sentence SummaryWe use a communication model to measure ligand discrimination errors in immune cells and molecular noise in cytokine signaling in ER+ breast cancer patients as compared to healthy controls.

cancer biology↗

CAR T-cell and oncolytic virus dynamics and determinants of combination therapy success for glioblastoma

Glioblastoma is a highly aggressive and treatment-resistant primary brain cancer. While chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T-cell therapy has demonstrated promising results in targeting these tumors, it has not yet been curative. An innovative approach to improve CAR T-cell efficacy is to combine them with other immune modulating therapies. In this study, we investigate in vitro combination of IL-13R2 targeted CAR T-cells with an oncolytic virus (OV) and study the complex interplay between tumor cells, CAR T-cells, and OV dynamics with a novel mathematical model. We fit the model to data collected from experiments with each therapy individually and in combination to reveal determinants of therapy synergy and improved efficacy. Our analysis reveals that the virus bursting size is a critical parameter in determining the net tumor infection rate and overall combination treatment efficacy. Moreover, the model predicts that administering the oncolytic virus simultaneously with, or prior to, CAR T-cells could maximize therapeutic efficacy.

immunology↗

BaNDyT: Bayesian Network modeling of molecular Dynamics Trajectories

Bayesian network modeling (BN modeling, or BNM) is an interpretable machine learning method for constructing probabilistic graphical models from the data. In recent years, it has been extensively applied to diverse types of biomedical datasets. Concurrently, our ability to perform long-timescale molecular dynamics (MD) simulations on proteins and other materials has increased exponentially. However, the analysis of MD simulation trajectories has not been data-driven but rather dependent on the users prior knowledge of the systems, thus limiting the scope and utility of the MD simulations. Recently, we pioneered using BNM for analyzing the MD trajectories of protein complexes. The resulting BN models yield novel fully data-driven insights into the functional importance of the amino acid residues that modulate proteins function. In this report, we describe the BaNDyT software package that implements the BNM specifically attuned to the MD simulation trajectories data. We believe that BaNDyT is the first software package to include specialized and advanced features for analyzing MD simulation trajectories using a probabilistic graphical network model. We describe here the softwares uses, the methods associated with it, and a comprehensive Python interface to the underlying generalist BNM code. This provides a powerful and versatile mechanism for users to control the workflow. As an application example, we have utilized this methodology and associated software to study how membrane proteins, specifically the G protein-coupled receptors, selectively couple to G proteins. The software can be used for analyzing MD trajectories of any protein as well as polymeric materials.

bioinformatics↗

Systems profiling reveals recurrently dysregulated cytokine signaling responses in ER+ breast cancer patients' blood

Cytokines mediate cell-to-cell communication across the immune system and therefore are critical to immunosurveillance in cancer and other diseases. Several cytokines show dysregulated abundance or signaling responses in breast cancer, associated with the disease and differences in survival and progression. Cytokines operate in a coordinated manner to affect immune surveillance and regulate one another, necessitating a systems approach for a complete picture of this dysregulation. Here, we profiled cytokine signaling responses of peripheral immune cells from breast cancer patients as compared to healthy controls in a multidimensional manner across ligands, cell populations, and responsive pathways. We find alterations in cytokine responsiveness across pathways and cell types that are best defined by integrated signatures across dimensions. Alterations in the abundance of a cytokines cognate receptor do not explain differences in responsiveness. Rather, alterations in baseline signaling and receptor abundance suggesting immune cell reprogramming are associated with altered responses. These integrated features suggest a global reprogramming of immune cell communication in breast cancer. Significance StatementWhile individual cytokine responses have previously been observed to be altered in breast cancer, cytokine signaling responses are tightly interconnected in a way that has not been previously characterized. Here, we profile cytokine signaling responses and find alterations that are shared across both pathways and cell types. The signatures across these measurements better define the alterations and point to a broad immunosuppression response. HighlightsO_LIBaseline and post-stimulation cytokine signaling profiles differ between healthy donors and breast cancer patients. C_LIO_LIChanges in cytokine response are not explained by differences in abundance of the cognate receptor C_LIO_LIFeatures of signaling response and receptor abundance dysregulation are coordinated across patients C_LIO_LIIntegrated patterns of dysregulation in breast cancer patients share features of Th17 like-response as well as regulatory-like B and CD8+ T cells C_LI

cancer biology↗

Bayesian network models identify co-operative GPCR:G protein interactions that contribute to G protein coupling

Cooperative interactions in protein-protein interfaces demonstrate the interdependency or the linked network-like behavior of interface interactions and their effect on the coupling of proteins. Cooperative interactions also could cause ripple or allosteric effects at a distance in protein-protein interfaces. Although they are critically important in protein-protein interfaces it is challenging to determine which amino acid pair interactions are cooperative. In this work we have used Bayesian network modeling, an interpretable machine learning method, combined with molecular dynamics trajectories to identify the residue pairs that show high cooperativity and their allosteric effect in the interface of G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) complexes with G proteins. Our results reveal a strong co-dependency in the formation of interface GPCR:G protein contacts. This observation indicates that cooperativity of GPCR:G protein interactions is necessary for the coupling and selectivity of G proteins and is thus critical for receptor function. We have identified subnetworks containing polar and hydrophobic interactions that are common among multiple GPCRs coupling to different G protein subtypes (Gs, Gi and Gq). These common subnetworks along with G protein-specific subnetworks together confer selectivity to the G protein coupling. This work underscores the potential of data-driven Bayesian network modeling in elucidating the intricate dependencies and selectivity determinants in GPCR:G protein complexes, offering valuable insights into the dynamic nature of these essential cellular signaling components.

biophysics↗

State-transition Modeling of Blood Transcriptome Predicts Disease Evolution and Treatment Response in Chronic Myeloid Leukemia (CML)

Chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) is initiated and maintained by BCR::ABL which is clinically targeted using tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs). TKIs can induce long-term remission but are also not curative. Thus, CML is an ideal system to test our hypothesis that transcriptome-based state-transition models accurately predict cancer evolution and treatment response. We collected time-sequential blood samples from tetracycline-off (Tet-Off) BCR::ABL-inducible transgenic mice and wild-type controls. From the transcriptome, we constructed a CML statespace and a three-well leukemogenic potential landscape. The potentials stable critical points defined observable disease states. Early states were characterized by anti-CML genes opposing leukemia; late states were characterized by pro-CML genes. Genes with expression patterns shaped similarly to the potential landscape were identified as drivers of disease transition. Re-introduction of tetracycline to silence the BCR::ABL gene returned diseased mice transcriptomes to a near healthy state, without reaching it, suggesting parts of the transition are irreversible. TKI only reverted the transcriptome to an intermediate disease state, without approaching a state of health; disease relapse occurred soon after treatment. Using only the earliest time-point as initial conditions, our state-transition models accurately predicted both disease progression and treatment response, supporting this as a potentially valuable approach to time clinical intervention even before phenotypic changes become detectable.

cancer biology↗