Biology subjects

Bozec, Y.-M.

Publications and source records attributed to Bozec, Y.-M..

5 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Genomic repeatability and predictability of local (mal)adaptation in a reef-building coral

Climate change is a growing threat to biodiversity, and the persistence of populations largely depends on their capacity to adapt to changing environmental conditions. Although there is an urgent need to forecast local adaptive potential, it is unclear how such predictions are affected by the genomic architectures underlying local adaptation across a species range. In this study, we examine the genomic basis of local adaptation of the short-distance dispersing coral Stylophora pistillata, sampled at forty-six sites across eight reefs of the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Our results show that thermal adaptation for this species involves hundreds of genomic loci with combinations that differ across geographic regions. Although adaptive loci were largely region-specific, genotype-environment relationships estimated across the entire range could predict regional-level adaptive patterns. This shows that genome-wide sequence data combined with geographically broad sampling can support reliable evolutionary forecasting. Under climate change projections, predicted shifts in genotype-environment associations were highly spatially variable, both between and within geographic regions. While some populations might be sufficiently adapted for moderate (SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5) climate warming by 2050, up to 30% may face severe maladaptation risk by 2100 under a high-emission (SSP5-8.5) scenario. Collectively, these findings offer new insights into the spatial distribution of coral adaptive potential and how it might shape corals resilience in a warming ocean.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2025

A rapidly closing window for coral persistence under global warming

Summary paragraphCoral reefs around the world are threatened by recurrent marine heatwaves causing mass coral bleaching and mortality1. Mitigating future warming impacts requires strategic management2 that adopts a long-term lens. Global analyses of projected heatwaves3,4 are critical for decision-making but how disturbance refugia, coral life-histories and adaptation interact with warming is unknown. Here, we simulate coral eco-evolutionary dynamics across >3,800 individual reefs of Australias iconic Great Barrier Reef under the current suite of climate projections5. We forecast a rapid coral decline before mid-century regardless of emissions scenario. Under the most likely warming6, corals may continue to decline throughout the century. However, corals may recover after mid-century provided that warming is sufficiently slow, allowing thermal adaptation to keep pace with temperature changes - as projected if warming does not exceed 2{degrees}C. Higher emission scenarios would drive most reefs to a near collapse. Future resilient reefs were mostly found in bleaching refugia, which also possessed a greater diversity of thermal phenotypes. Although cool-adapted corals disperse to thermal hotspots, there was no evidence of gene swamping undermining thermal adaptation. While opportunities exist to build management strategies that promote adaptation in thermal refugia and warm spots, curbing the rate of warming by 2050 is crucial for coral persistence.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Reproducing within-reef variability in coral dynamics with a metacommunity modelling framework

Reef systems span spatial scales from 10s to 100s and even 1000s of kilometres, with substantial spatial variability across these scales. Managing and predicting the future of coral reefs requires insights into reef functioning at all spatial scales. However, investigations of reef functioning often consider individual reefs as the smallest unit (10s of kilometres), despite substantial spatiotemporal variability occurring within-reefs (100s of meters). We developed C[~]scape, a coral metacommunity modelling framework that integrates the demography of corals with population-level responses to physical and environmental spatial layers, to simulate a mosaic of interacting coral communities across a heterogenous seascape. Coral communities are linked using biophysical connectivity modelling. Coral community growth is modelled with a logistic growth model, with the intrinsic growth parameter determined from taxa-specific Integral Projection Models to incorporate demographic mechanisms. Site-specific coral habitat parameters, derived from satellite-based geomorphic and benthic habitat maps, define the maximum coral cover and are used to modulate community growth spatially and temporally as a function of the available space suitable for corals. These parameters are a proxy for the many interacting physical and environmental factors -- e.g., depth, light, wave exposure, temperature, and substrate type -- that drive within-reef variability in coral demography. Using a case study from the Great Barrier Reef, we show that modulating community growth using site-specific habitat parameters enables more accurate hindcasts of coral cover dynamics, while overlooking within-reef variability may lead to misleading conclusions about metacommunity dynamics. More generally, C[~]scape provides a valuable framework for predicting spatiotemporal dynamics of coral communities within and between reefs, offering a mechanistic approach to test a range of management and restoration options.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

High germline mutation rates but not extreme population size outbreaks influence genetic diversity in crown-of-thorns sea stars

Lewontins paradox, the observation that levels of genetic diversity ({pi}) among animals do not scale linearly with variation in census population sizes (Nc), is an evolutionary conundrum, where the most extreme mismatches between {pi} and Nc are found for highly abundant marine invertebrates. Yet, whether new mutations influence {pi} relative to extrinsic processes remains unknown for most taxa. Here, we provide the first direct germline mutation rate () estimate for a marine invertebrate, using high-coverage (60x) whole-genome sequencing of wild-caught Acanthaster cf. solaris crown-of-thorns sea stars (Echinodermata). We also provide empirical estimates of adult Nc in Australias Great Barrier Reef to jointly examine the determinants of {pi}. Based on direct observations of 63 de novo mutations across 14 parent-offspring trios, the A. cf. solaris mean was 9.13 x 10-09 mutations per-site per-generation (95% CI: 6.51 x 10-09 to 1.18 x 10-08). This value exceeds estimates for other invertebrates, showing greater concordance with reported vertebrate germline mutation rates. Lower-than-expected Ne ([~]70,000-180,000) and low Ne/Nc values (0.0047-0.048) indicated significant genetic drift and weak influences of contemporary population outbreaks on long-term {pi}. Our findings of elevated and low Ne in A. cf. solaris may help explain high mutational loads and extreme polymorphism levels observed in some marine invertebrate taxa and are consistent with evolving in response to Ne (drift-barrier hypothesis). This study advances our understanding of the processes controlling levels of natural genetic variation and provides new data valuable for further testing hypotheses about mutation rate evolution across animal phyla.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2020

Cumulative impacts across Australia's Great Barrier Reef: A mechanistic evaluation

Cumulative impacts assessments on marine ecosystems have been hindered by the difficulty of collecting environmental data and identifying drivers of community dynamics beyond local scales. On coral reefs, an additional challenge is to disentangle the relative influence of multiple drivers that operate at different stages of coral ontogeny. We integrated coral life history, population dynamics and spatially-explicit environmental drivers to assess the relative and cumulative impacts of multiple stressors across 2,300 km of the worlds largest coral reef ecosystem, Australias Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Using literature data, we characterized relationships between coral life history processes (reproduction, larval dispersal, recruitment, growth and mortality) and environmental variables. We then simulated coral demographics and stressor impacts at the organism (coral colony) level on >3,800 individual reefs linked by larval connectivity, and exposed to temporally- and spatially-realistic regimes of acute (crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks, cyclones and mass coral bleaching) and chronic (water quality) stressors. Model simulations produced a credible reconstruction of recent (2008-2020) coral trajectories consistent with monitoring observations, while estimating the impacts of each stressor at reef and regional scales. Overall, corals declined by one third across the GBR, from an average [~]29% to [~]19% hard coral cover. By 2020, less than 20% of the GBR had coral cover higher than 30%. Global annual rates of coral mortality were driven by bleaching (48%) ahead of cyclones (41%) and starfish predation (11%). Beyond the reconstructed status and trends, the model enabled the emergence of complex interactions that compound the effects of multiple stressors while promoting a mechanistic understanding of coral cover dynamics. Drivers of coral cover growth were identified; notably, water quality (suspended sediments) was estimated to delay recovery for at least 25% of inshore reefs. Standardized rates of coral loss and recovery allowed the integration of all cumulative impacts to determine the equilibrium cover for each reef. This metric, combined with maps of impacts, recovery potential, water quality thresholds and reef state metrics, facilitates strategic spatial planning and resilience-based management across the GBR.

ecology↗