Biology subjects

Bowler, D.

Publications and source records attributed to Bowler, D..

5 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2020

Widespread decline in plant diversity across six decades

Based on plant occurrence data covering all parts of Germany, we investigated changes in the distribution of 2146 plant species between 1960 and 2017. We analyzed 29 million occurrence records over an area of [~]350.000 km2 on a 5 x 5 km grid using temporal and spatio-temporal models and accounting for sampling bias. Since the 1960s, more than 70% of investigated plant species showed significant declines in nation-wide occurrence. Archaeophytes (species introduced before 1492) most strongly declined but also native plant species experienced severe declines. In contrast, neophytes (species introduced after 1492) increased in their nation-wide occurrence but not homogeneously throughout the country. Our analysis suggests that the strongest declines in native species already happened in the 1960s-80s, a time frame in which usually few data exist. Increases in neophytic species were strongest in the 1990s and 2010s. Overall, the increase in neophytes did not compensate for the loss of other species, resulting in a decrease in mean grid-cell species-richness of -1.9% per decade. The decline in plant biodiversity is a widespread phenomenon occurring in different habitats and geographic regions. It is likely that this decline has major repercussions on ecosystem functioning and overall biodiversity, potentially with cascading effects across trophic levels. The approach used in this study is transferable to large-scale trend analyses using heterogeneous occurrence data.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Winners and losers over 35 years of dragonfly and damselfly distributional change in Germany

Recent studies suggest insect declines in parts of Europe; however, the generality of these trends across different taxa and regions remains unclear. Standardized data are not available to assess large-scale, long-term changes for most insect groups but opportunistic citizen science data is widespread for some taxa. We compiled over 1 million occurrence records of Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies) from different regional databases across Germany. We used occupancy-detection models to estimate annual distributional changes between 1980 and 2016 for each species. We related species attributes to changes in the species distributions and inferred possible drivers of change. Species showing increases were generally warm-adapted species and/or running water species while species showing decreases were cold-adapted species using standing water habitats such as bogs. We developed a novel approach using time-series clustering to identify groups of species with similar patterns of temporal change. Using this method, we defined five typical patterns of change for Odonata - each associated with a specific combination of species attributes. Overall, trends in Odonata provide mixed news - improved water quality, coupled with positive impacts of climate change, could explain the positive trend status of many species. At the same time, declining species point to conservation challenges associated with habitat loss and degradation. Our study demonstrates the great value of citizen science data for assessing large-scale distributional change and conservation decision-making.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Impacts of predator-mediated interactions along a climatic gradient on the population dynamics of an alpine bird

According to classic theory, species population dynamics and distributions are less influenced by species interactions under harsh climatic conditions compared to under more benign climatic conditions. In alpine and boreal ecosystems in Fennoscandia, the cyclic dynamics of rodents strongly affect many other species, including ground-nesting birds such as ptarmigan. According to the alternative prey hypothesis (APH), the densities of ground-nesting birds and rodents are positively associated due to predator-prey dynamics and prey-switching. However, it remains unclear how the strength of these predator-mediated interactions change along a climatic harshness gradient in comparison with the effects of climatic variation. We built a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the sensitivity of ptarmigan populations to interannual variation in climate and rodent occurrence across Norway during 2007-2017. Ptarmigan abundance was positively linked with rodent occurrence, consistent with the APH. Moreover, we found that rodent dynamics had stronger effects on ptarmigan in colder regions. Our study highlights how species interactions play an important role for the population dynamics of species at higher latitudes and suggests that they can become even more important in the most climatically harsh regions.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

Biodiversity trends are stronger in marine than terrestrial assemblages

Human activities have fundamentally altered biodiversity. Extinction rates are elevated and model projections suggest drastic biodiversity declines. Yet, observed temporal trends in recent decades are highly variable, despite consistent change in species composition. Here, we uncover clear spatial patterns within this variation. We estimated trends in the richness and composition of assemblages in over 50,000 time-series, to provide the most comprehensive assessment of temporal change in biodiversity across the planet to date. The strongest, most consistent pattern shows compositional change dominated by species turnover, with marine taxa experiencing up to fourfold the variation in rates of change of terrestrial taxa. Richness change ranged from no change to richness gains or losses of ~10% per year, with tropical marine biomes experiencing the most extreme changes. Earth is undergoing a process of spatial reorganisation of species and, while few areas are unaffected, biodiversity change is consistently strongest in the oceans.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

The geography of the Anthropocene differs between the land and the sea

O_LIClimate change and other anthropogenic drivers of biodiversity change are unequally distributed across the world. The geographic patterns of different drivers, and the spatial overlap among these drivers, have important implications for the direction and pace of biodiversity change, yet are not well documented. Moreover, it is unknown if the geographic patterns of drivers differ between the terrestrial and marine realm, as expected due to marked differences in how humans interact with the land and ocean. C_LIO_LIWe compiled global gridded datasets on climate change, land-use, resource exploitation, pollution, species invasions, and human population density. We used multivariate statistics to examine the spatial relationships among the datasets and to characterize the typical combinations of drivers experienced by different parts of the world. C_LIO_LIWe found stronger positive correlations among drivers in the terrestrial than in the marine realm, leading to areas of high intensities of multiple drivers on land. Climate change tended to be negatively correlated with other drivers in the terrestrial realm (e.g., in the tundra and boreal forest with high climate change but low human use and pollution) whereas the opposite was true in the marine realm (e.g., in the Indo-Pacific with high climate change and high fishing). C_LIO_LIWe show that different regions of the world can be defined by anthropogenic threat complexes (ATCs), distinguished by different sets of drivers with varying intensities. The ATCs can be used to test hypothesis about the pattern of biodiversity change, especially the joint effects of multiple drivers. More generally, our global analysis highlights the broad conservation priorities needed to mitigate the effects of anthropogenic change on biodiversity responses, with different priorities emerging on land and in the ocean, and in different parts of the world. C_LI

ecology↗