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Bourgeois-Gironde, S.

Publications and source records attributed to Bourgeois-Gironde, S..

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Satellite-gene abundance fusion reveals global hotspots of ocean ecosystem services

The Ocean sustains planetary health through climate regulation, biodiversity, and essential ecosystem services. Plankton underpins these processes by driving primary production, sustaining food webs, and mediating carbon sequestration. Yet the spatial organization of plankton-based ecosystem services remains poorly understood. The High Seas Treaty and the 30% Ocean protection target by 2030 create an urgent need for science-based guidance for global ocean governance. Here, we aim to identify key planktonic areas associated with functional diversity, net primary productivity, and carbon export globally. We used machine learning to integrate omics-derived plankton functions and satellite observations with diversity metric and ecosystem services. Leveraging metagenomic data, we identified molecular functions strongly linked to ecosystem functioning and project their global distributions across seasons. We reveal putative hotspots of functional diversity, net primary productivity, and carbon export. Our analysis pinpoints areas where all three indicators converge synchronously, predominantly along oceanographic structures such as polar fronts and principal current systems. By relying on satellite data as core input, our approach captures the temporal variability of these hotspots, providing a global, dynamic protocol for projections of plankton-based ecosystem services. These findings establish a foundation for developing integrative conservation tools based on ecosystem functioning and inform adaptive management under climate change.

ecology↗

Too Soon to Save: structural uncertainty inverts the value of precautionary conservation action

Conservation policy commonly assumes that acting early is inherently safer than waiting. Here, we show that this intuition can fail when ecological structure is uncertain and protection decisions are difficult to reverse. We compare a precautionary strategy that protects early under uncertainty with an adaptive strategy that learns before committing protection, across both synthetic and real ecosystems. In synthetic ecosystems with uncertain trophic structure, the adaptive learn-then-commit strategy yields higher protected-area phylogenetic diversity than the main precautionary baseline (Raos Q PD = 5.23 versus 4.41, P < 10-4, Cohens d = 0.54) and higher functional diversity (1.39 versus 1.25, P < 10-4, d = 0.93), although it remains below the full-knowledge oracle (5.34 and 1.43, respectively). This adaptive advantage is greatest when errors in structural allocation are most costly, particularly in highly connected ecosystems. It is also stronger in highly modular systems, although this effect is secondary. In a real ecosystem (North-East Atlantic fish communities), we find the same conditions for such an advantage: structural importance is largely decoupled from abundance ({rho} = -0.05, P = 0.77), and trophic uncertainty declines markedly through time (R2 = 0.95, P < 10-6). Consistent with this mechanism, adaptive spatial allocation also outperforms a precautionary Marxan-like baseline in the empirical analysis (Shannon diversity 1.70 versus 1.44 at K = 10, P < 10-5). Together, these results show that the value of waiting in conservation does not arise from delay itself, but from the opportunity to learn which components of an ecosystem matter most. When ecological structure is uncertain and protection is hard to reverse, precaution can lock conservation into avoidable mistakes.

ecology↗