Biology subjects

Boukhris, I.

Publications and source records attributed to Boukhris, I..

2 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2025

Long-term forest-sector mitigation and radiative forcing under contrasting management, climate, and substitution pathways

Forests are central to the EUs climate neutrality strategy, currently offsetting [~]9% of total greenhouse gas emissions and offering further mitigation potential through harvested wood products and the substitution effect. However, the climate benefit of the forest sector is influenced by multiple interacting factors, including forest management, climate change, wood-use strategies, and assumptions about substitution benefits, as well as the timing and fate of carbon across the forest ecosystem and technosphere. To evaluate these drivers, we used a coupled forest growth and a wood products model to simulate five different silvicultural strategies under three climate change scenarios, four wood use schemes, and five displacement factor decay pathways over a 285-year period (2015-2300), applied to a Pinus nigra forest in Italy, questioning the impact of these factors on climate mitigation potential of the forest sector. We assessed forest sector balance (FSB, net carbon exchange between forest system and atmosphere), radiative forcing from biogenic CO2 (RFbio), and mitigation efficiency (ME) - the proportion of sequestered carbon contributing to net climate benefit. Results showed that FSB and RFbio were "broadly" aligned, but ME varied with the magnitude and duration of biogenic emissions. The scenarios BIOE (bioenergy) and TM (modular cutting) achieved high FSB but showed lower ME due to concentrated or sustained emissions. WOOD (promotion of long-lived wood) and ADAPT (adaptation management) yielded higher ME under SSP1-2.6, while several strategies (WOOD, ADAPT, TRANS) became net sources under SSP5-8.5 after 2200. Substitution benefits declined under degressive assumptions, reducing mitigation by up to 53% especially for high-harvest scenarios. FSB was primarily shaped by climate and management, secondly by substitution, however; wood-use strategies had no significant long-term effect provided they did not impact resource availability. Together, these findings underscore that effective forest-sector mitigation requires not only maximizing cumulative carbon stocks, but also minimizing the magnitude, timing, and atmospheric residence time of emissions while carefully considering the role of substitution benefits. HighlightsO_LIThe long-term forest sector carbon balance is mainly governed by active management, climate conditions, and wood substitution pathways. C_LIO_LIForest Sector Balance as a metric is "broadly" aligned with the radiative forcing from biogenic emissions C_LIO_LIThe mitigation efficiency of forest sector options depends on emissions timing, duration, and amplitude C_LIO_LISubstitution factors also known as displacement factors need to be considered with greater caution C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

TimberTracer: A Comprehensive Framework for the Evaluation of Carbon Sequestration by Forest Management and Substitution of Harvested Wood Products.

BackgroundHarvested wood products (HWPs) have a pivotal role in climate change mitigation, a recognition solidified in many Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. Integrating HWPs greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals into accounting requirements relies on typical decision-oriented tools known as wood product models (WPMs). The study introduces the TimberTracer (TT) framework, designed to simulate HWP carbon stock, substitution effects, and emissions from wood decay and bioenergy. ResultsCoupled with the 3D-CMCC-FEM forest growth model, TimberTracer was applied to Laricio Pine (Pinus nigra subsp. laricio) in Italys Bonis watershed, evaluating three forest management practices (clearcut, selective thinning, and shelterwood) and four wood-use scenarios (business as usual, increased recycling rate, extended average lifespan, and a simultaneous increase in both the recycling rate and the average lifespan) over a 140-year planning horizon, to assess the overall carbon balance of HWPs. Furthermore, this study evaluates the consequences of disregarding landfill methane emissions and relying on static substitution factors, assessing their impact on the mitigation potential of various options. This investigation, covering HWPs stock, carbon (C) emissions, and the substitution effect, revealed that selective thinning emerged as the optimal forest management scenario. In addition, a simultaneous 10% increase in both the recycling rate and half-life, under the so-called "sustainability" scenario, proved to be the optimal wood-use strategy. Finally, the analysis shows that failing to account for landfill methane emissions and the use of dynamic substitution can significantly overestimate the mitigation potential of various forest management and wood-use options, which underscores the critical importance of a comprehensive accounting in climate mitigation strategies involving HWPs. ConclusionsOur study highlights the critical role of harvested wood products (HWPs) in climate change mitigation, as endorsed by multiple Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. Utilizing the TimberTracer framework coupled with the 3D-CMCC-FEM forest growth model, we identified selective thinning as the optimal forest management practice. Additionally, enhancing recycling rates and extending product lifespan effectively bolstered the carbon balance. Moreover, this study emphasizes the necessity of accounting for landfill methane emissions and dynamic product substitution, as failing to do so may significantly overestimate the mitigation potential of implemented projects. These findings offer actionable insights to optimize forest management strategies and advance climate change mitigation efforts.

ecology↗