Biology subjects

Bieg, C.

Publications and source records attributed to Bieg, C..

9 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Activity Patterns Structure Food Web Interactions Through Time

Many mobile animals move to locate and consume resources, making energy gain and growth dependent on activity. Yet the role of activity in shaping predator-prey interactions in food webs has not been broadly considered. Here, we synthesize empirical examples to examine how three activity traits (mean, variance, and timing) vary among taxa (fish, mammals, birds) and between predators and prey across temporal scales. We then use predator-prey models to explore how these diverse activity patterns influence stability. Motivated by emerging activity patterns, our theory shows that fluctuating activity rates can drive predator-prey interaction strengths with major consequences for stability. Future research is needed on activity trait patterning, links between activity and attack rates, and the consequences of activity for predator-prey interactions to whole food webs. This is especially critical as human-driven changes to abiotic cues increasingly alter animal activity rates and may rewire food webs.

animal behavior and cognition↗

bioRxiv2026

Temperature-dependent performance scales with maximum heat tolerance across ectotherms

Projecting species responses to changing temperatures remains a major challenge in ecology. Central to this effort is harnessing our understanding of species thermal physiological traits, which underlie ectotherm fitness. These traits are typically characterized by describing performance across temperatures (thermal performance curve, TPC), and/or tolerance limits, which capture endpoints of biological failure. Despite their importance, we still lack an understanding of the functional relationship between these traits, limiting our ability to integrate them into comprehensive vulnerability assessments. Using a synthesized dataset of >100 ectotherms, we tested how heat tolerance (CTmax) relates to key TPC traits: thermal optima, thermal maxima, and the supra-optimal range of temperatures where performance is positive. Across taxa, TPC traits were positively related to CTmax, demonstrating a link between heat tolerance and temperature-dependent performance at sub-critical temperatures. While acute locomotor performance scaled proportionally with CTmax, metabolic processes and sustained locomotion scaled sub-proportionally, suggesting decoupling of CTmax and performance among high-CTmax species. This suggests that using CTmax as a comparative metric may overestimate thermal safety margins for metabolic processes critical to growth. Our results indicate that while CTmax and TPCs reflect shared underlying constraints--particularly in acute neuro-muscular traits--their relationship is dependent on timescale and the TPC response trait. Our findings connect our understanding of the processes that maintain performance over thermal gradients with those that cause performance to fail, improving our ability to project species persistence in a warming world. SignificanceClimate warming is increasingly reshaping the thermal environments that govern species persistence worldwide. Predicting vulnerability requires integrating multiple aspects of thermal biology, yet relationships among widely used thermal traits remain poorly understood. By synthesizing data from more than 100 ectotherm species, we quantify links between acute heat tolerance and traits describing sustained biological function across temperatures. We show that performance at relatively benign temperatures and performance at thermal extremes are coupled, but this coupling is strongly process and timescale dependent, with close correspondence for short term locomotion but weaker coupling for metabolic processes. Our results link the processes that maintain performance across temperatures with those that cause failure, fundamentally advancing our projections of species performance in a warming world.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Transient dynamics and counterintuitive competitive performance in periodic environments

Despite the rapid pace of global change altering temporal environmental patterning, we lack a general understanding of how periodic environments structure ecological communities. In fluctuating environments, nonlinear dynamics associated with temporal trade-offs between competing species can create the potential for both niche differentiation (coexistence) and seemingly unexpected outcomes (exclusion) that deviate from deterministic coexistence theory. Yet, the mechanisms behind these outcomes are not fully understood. Here, we show that periodic fluctuations between times of high and low growth (e.g., seasons), and adaptive temporal trade-offs within and between species, can drive counterintuitive over- and under-performance of competing species. Most notable is the counterintuitive outcome of seasonally-mediated competitive exclusion that would not occur in either season alone, but is rather the direct result of environmental variability itself. We find that seasonal trade-offs in species growth rates, seasonal differences in competition strength, and functional similarity between competing species have the potential to drive nonlinear responses in coexistence to changing seasonality under global change. These biological conditions collectively influence our models transient dynamics, further explaining the mechanisms behind counterintuitive outcomes and highlighting the importance of non-equilibrium theory for global change ecology. Importantly, the seasonal patterns and species trade-offs that magnify these results are biologically realistic, therefore providing important insight into the implications for the maintenance of biodiversity under global change.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Forecasting Extinction Risk using Thermal Performance Curves and Population Dynamic Modeling

Thermal Performance Curves (TPCs) have become a popular tool for assessing the risks imposed by climate warming and variability on ectotherms. These assessments typically measure the match between an organism or populations TPC and the distribution of its current or future thermal environment as a proxy for extinction risk. However, extinction can occur even when the average thermal environment appears closely matched to a populations TPC because population dynamics can be very sensitive to thermal stress. Here, we develop a new metric for assessing extinction risk using a stochastic model of logistic growth as a foundation. We show that boundaries delimiting persistence and extinction regions of parameter space can be derived for the simple case where the intrinsic (Malthusian) growth rate r varies stochastically and that these boundaries continue to make reliable predictions when temperature T varies stochastically and the Malthusian growth rate is given by a thermal performance curve r (T). We accomplish this by combining theory with stochastic simulations of population dynamics and a laboratory experiment where populations of the single-celled protist Paramecium caudatum were cultured across different temporal means and variances of temperature. The measure of risk that we develop and validate is straightforward and easily applicable to any population for which the thermal performance of Malthusian fitness is known, allowing more rigorous identification of the risks imposed by warmer and more variable temperatures across the globe.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

Interactions between temperature and nutrients determine the population dynamics of primary producers

Global change is rapidly and fundamentally altering many of the processes regulating the flux of energy throughout ecosystems and although researchers now understand the effect of temperature on key rates (such as aquatic primary productivity), the theoretical foundation needed to generate forecasts of biomass dynamics and extinction risk remains underdeveloped. We develop new theory that describes the interconnected effects of nutrients and temperature on phytoplankton populations and show that the thermal response of equilibrium biomass (i.e., carrying capacity) always peaks at a lower temperature than for productivity (i.e., growth rate). This difference results from trade-offs between the thermal responses of growth, death, and per-capita impact on the nutrient pool, making this thermal mismatch highly general and applicable to widely used population models. We further show that non-equilibrium dynamics depend on the pace of environmental change relative to underlying vital rates, and that populations respond to variable environments differently at high vs. low temperatures due to thermal asymmetries.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

Coexistence in Periodic Environments

Climate change and other anthropogenic impacts are rapidly altering natural environmental periodicities on a variety of time scales. Despite this, a general theoretical foundation describing the role of periodic environmental variation in structuring species interactions and ecological communities is still underdeveloped. Alarmingly, this leaves us unprepared to understand and predict implications for the maintenance of biodiversity under global change. Here, we extend a two-species Lotka-Volterra competition model that incorporates periodic forcing between seasons of high and low production to investigate the effects of changing environmental patterns on species coexistence. Towards this, we define coexistence criteria for periodic environments by approximating isocline solutions akin to classical coexistence outcomes. This analytical approach illustrates that periodic environments (i.e., seasonality) in and of themselves can mediate different competitive outcomes, and these patterns are general across varying time scales. Importantly, species coexistence may be incredibly sensitive to changes in these abiotic periods, suggesting that climate change has the potential to drastically impact the maintenance of biodiversity in the future.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Towards a multi-stressor theory for coral reefs in a changing world

Coral reefs are facing a constant barrage of human impacts, including eutrophication, overharvesting and climate change. While the local effects of overharvesting have been well-studied, regional nutrient loading from anthropogenic activities on land and global climate change-induced disturbances are increasing in magnitude and necessitating cross-scale multi-stressor approaches for coral reef ecology. Here, we expand on longstanding theory to develop an integrated multi-stressor framework for coral reefs. We show that: i) the geometry of a simple, empirically-motivated model suggests nutrients and harvesting can operate similarly, and synergistically, in driving shifts from coral- to algae-dominated reefs, resulting in clear context-dependent management implications; and ii) this same geometry suggests climate-driven coral mortality can drive the presence of long transients and climate-driven alternate states, even in moderately-impacted ecosystems. Reefs seemingly in a "safe space" based on individual stressors may in fact be much more susceptible to increasingly frequent storms and bleaching events in multi-stressor conditions. By integrating these findings with general ecological and theoretical concepts, we suggest that responses in benthic composition may act as "signatures of change" to multi-stressors, allowing us to develop a predictive and generalizable multi-stressor framework for coral reefs under global change. In line with this theory, we detail empirical evidence from Barbados of historical changes in reef composition and multi-stressor impacts within our framework. By bridging coral reef ecology and general ecological concepts, we can better understand ecosystem functioning and resilience in these important yet highly threatened systems. Manuscript HighlightsO_LITheoretical understanding of synergistic multi-stressor impacts on coral reefs C_LIO_LIUnexpected climate-driven alternate states, related to long transients C_LIO_LITheoretical framework predicts "signatures of change" based on dominant stressor C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Ecosystem Entanglement and the Propagation of Nutrient-Driven Instability

Almost 50 years ago, Michael Rosenzweig pointed out that nutrient addition can destabilize food webs, leading to loss of species and reduced ecosystem function through the paradox of enrichment. Around the same time, David Tilman demonstrated that increased nutrient loading would also be expected to cause competitive exclusion leading to deleterious changes in food web diversity. While both concepts have greatly illuminated general diversity-stability theory, we currently lack a coherent framework to predict how nutrients influence food web stability across a landscape. This is a vitally important gap in our understanding, given mounting evidence of serious ecological disruption arising from anthropogenic displacement of resources and organisms. Here, we combine contemporary theory on food webs and meta-ecosystems to show that nutrient additions are indeed expected to drive loss in stability and function in human-impacted regions. However, this loss in stability occurs not just from wild oscillations in population abundance, but more frequently from the complete loss of an equilibrium due to edible plant species being competitively excluded. In highly modified landscapes, spatial nutrient transport theory suggests that such instabilities can be amplified over vast distances from the sites of nutrient addition. Consistent with this theoretical synthesis, the empirical frequency of these distant propagating ecosystem imbalances appears to be growing. This synthesis of theory and empirical data suggests that human modification of the Earths ecological connectivity is "entangling" once distantly separated ecosystems, causing rapid, expansive, and costly nutrient-driven instabilities over vast areas of the planet. The corollary to this spatial nutrient theory, though -- akin to weak interaction theory from food web networks -- is that slow spatial nutrient pathways can be potent stabilizers by moderating flows across a landscape.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Winter in water: Differential responses and the maintenance of biodiversity

The ecological consequences of winter in freshwater systems are an understudied but rapidly emerging research area. Here, we argue that winter periods of reduced temperature and light (and potentially oxygen and resources) could play an underappreciated role in mediating the coexistence of species. This may be especially true for temperate and subarctic lakes, where seasonal changes in the thermal environment might fundamentally structure species interactions. With climate change already shortening ice-covered periods on temperate and polar lakes, consideration of how winter conditions shape biotic interactions is urgently needed. Using freshwater fishes in northern temperate lakes as a case study, we demonstrate how physiological trait differences (e.g., thermal preference, light sensitivity) drive differential behavioral responses to winter among competing species. Specifically, some species have a higher capacity for winter activity than others. Existing and new theory is presented to argue that such differential responses to winter can promote species coexistence. Importantly, if winter is a driver of niche differences that weaken competition between relative to within species, then shrinking winter periods could threaten coexistence by tipping the scales in favor of certain sets of species over others.

ecology↗