Biology subjects

Biber, M. F.

Publications and source records attributed to Biber, M. F..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2024

Future climate and land use change will equally impact global terrestrial vertebrate diversity

Aim: Terrestrial biodiversity is impacted by both climate and land use change. Yet, future biodiversity projections have rarely considered these two drivers in combination. In this study, we aim to assess the individual and combined impact of future climate and land use change on global terrestrial vertebrate diversity under a "sustainability" (SSP1-RCP2.6) and an "inequality" (SSP4-RCP6.0) scenario. Location: Global land, excluding Antarctica. Time period: 1995, 2080 Major taxa studied: Amphibians, birds, and mammals. Methods: We combined global climate-driven species distribution model (SDM) projections of 13903 vertebrates (amphibians, birds, and mammals) with future and present land use projections from the Land Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) project. We refined the SDM outputs by the habitat requirements of each species using a land use filtering approach. We then analyzed future species richness changes globally, per region, and per land use category, and looked at taxon-specific effects. Results: Under both scenarios, decreases in future species richness dominate at low and mid-latitudes, with climate and land use change playing an equally important role. Land use change can be either an alleviating (SSP1-RCP2.6) or an exacerbating (SSP4-RCP6.0) factor of climate-induced biodiversity loss. Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to become a high-risk area for future land use-driven biodiversity loss under the SSP4-RCP6.0. Under SSP1-RCP2.6, forested and non-forested land areas increase, while SSP4-RCP6.0 leads to higher rates of deforestation and pasture expansion. Mammals experience the largest climate-driven losses, affecting 56.4% of land area under SSP4-RCP6.0, while amphibians are particularly vulnerable to land use-driven losses, especially under SSP4-RCP6.0. Main conclusions: Our results suggest that both climate and land use pressures on biodiversity will be highest in lower latitudes, which harbor the highest levels of biodiversity.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Potential future climate change effects on global reptile distribution and diversity

AimUntil recently, complete information on global reptile distributions has not been widely available. Here, we provide the first comprehensive climate impact assessment for reptiles on a global scale. LocationGlobal, excluding Antarctica Time period1995, 2050, 2080 Major taxa studiedReptiles MethodsWe modelled the distribution of 6,296 reptile species and assessed potential global as well as realm-specific changes in species richness, the change in global species richness across climate space, and species-specific changes in range extent, overlap and position under future climate change. To assess the future climatic impact on 3,768 range-restricted species, which could not be modelled, we compared the future change in climatic conditions between both modelled and non-modelled species. ResultsReptile richness was projected to decline significantly over time, globally but also for most zoogeographic realms, with the greatest decrease in Brazil, Australia and South Africa. Species richness was highest in warm and moist regions, with these regions being projected to shift further towards climate extremes in the future. Range extents were projected to decline considerably in the future, with a low overlap between current and future ranges. Shifts in range centroids differed among realms and taxa, with a dominating global poleward shift. Non-modelled species were significantly stronger affected by projected climatic changes than modelled species. Main conclusionsWith ongoing future climate change, reptile richness is likely to decrease significantly across most parts of the world. This effect as well as considerable impacts on species range extent, overlap, and position were visible across lizards, snakes and turtles alike. Together with other anthropogenic impacts, such as habitat loss and harvesting of species, this is a cause for concern. Given the historical lack of global reptile distributions, this calls for a reassessment of global reptile conservation efforts, with a specific focus on anticipated future climate change.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Global impacts of climate change on avian functional diversity

Climate change is predicted to drive geographical range shifts in many taxa, leading to the formation of novel species assemblages and fluctuations in species richness worldwide. However, the effect of these changes on functional diversity is not yet fully understood, in part because comprehensive species-level trait data are generally lacking at global scales. Here we use morphometric and ecological trait data for 8269 terrestrial bird species to compare functional diversity (FD) of current and future bird assemblages under a medium emissions scenario. We show that future assemblages are likely to undergo substantial shifts in trait structure, with the direction and magnitude of these shifts varying with geographical location and trophic guild. Specifically, invertivore FD is projected to increase at higher latitudes with concurrent losses at mid-latitudes, reflecting poleward shifts in range, whereas frugivore FD is projected to fluctuate in many tropical regions with major declines in much of South America and New Guinea. We show that these projected changes in FD are generally greater than expected from changing species richness alone, indicating that projected FD changes are primarily driven by the loss or gain of functionally distinct species. Our findings suggest that climate change will drive continental-scale shifts in avian functional diversity, with potentially far-reaching implications for ecosystem functions and resilience.

ecology↗