How many replicates to accurately estimate fish biodiversity using environmental DNA on coral reefs?
Quantifying the diversity of species in rich tropical marine environments remains challenging. Environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding is a promising tool to face this challenge through the filtering, amplification, and sequencing of DNA traces from water samples. However, the reliability of biodiversity detection from eDNA samples can be low in marine environments because eDNA density is low and certainly patchy in this vast, heterogenous and dynamic environment. So, the number of sampling replicates and filtered volume necessary to obtain accurate estimates of biodiversity in rich tropical marine environments using eDNA metabarcoding is still unknown. Here, we used a paired sampling design of 30L per replicate on 68 reef transects from 8 sites in three tropical regions and identified fish Molecular Taxonomic Units (MOTUs) using a 12S marker. We quantified local biodiversity variation as MOTU richness, compositional turnover and compositional nestedness between replicated pairs of seawater samples. We report strong turnover of MOTUs between replicated pairs of samples undertaken in the same location, time, and conditions. Paired samples contained non-overlapping assemblages rather than subsets of one-another. As a result, localised diversity accumulation curves showed that even 6 replicates (180L) in the same location underestimated local diversity (for an area <1km). However, sampling of regional diversity using [~]25 replicates in variable locations (often covering 10s of km) achieved saturation of biodiversity accumulation curves. Our results demonstrate high variability of diversity estimates perhaps arising from heterogeneous and local distribution of eDNA distribution in seawater or highly skewed frequencies of eDNA traces. This high compositional variability has consequences for using eDNA to monitor temporal and spatial biodiversity changes of local assemblages. Future biomonitoring efforts could be strongly undermined by a high level of false-negative detections under low replication protocols. We reveal the need to increase replicates or increase sampled water volume to better inform management of marine biodiversity using eDNA.