Winners and losers over 35 years of dragonfly and damselfly distributional change in Germany
Recent studies suggest insect declines in parts of Europe; however, the generality of these trends across different taxa and regions remains unclear. Standardized data are not available to assess large-scale, long-term changes for most insect groups but opportunistic citizen science data is widespread for some taxa. We compiled over 1 million occurrence records of Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies) from different regional databases across Germany. We used occupancy-detection models to estimate annual distributional changes between 1980 and 2016 for each species. We related species attributes to changes in the species distributions and inferred possible drivers of change. Species showing increases were generally warm-adapted species and/or running water species while species showing decreases were cold-adapted species using standing water habitats such as bogs. We developed a novel approach using time-series clustering to identify groups of species with similar patterns of temporal change. Using this method, we defined five typical patterns of change for Odonata - each associated with a specific combination of species attributes. Overall, trends in Odonata provide mixed news - improved water quality, coupled with positive impacts of climate change, could explain the positive trend status of many species. At the same time, declining species point to conservation challenges associated with habitat loss and degradation. Our study demonstrates the great value of citizen science data for assessing large-scale distributional change and conservation decision-making.