Bastianelli, O. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2021

Identifying drivers of spatio-temporal variation in survival in four blue tit populations

In a context of rapid climate change, the influence of large-scale and local climate on population demography is increasingly scrutinized, yet studies are usually focused on one population. Demographic parameters, including survival, can vary significantly across populations of a given species, depending on global or local climatic fluctuations but also on many other population-specific parameters such as breeding density, habitat naturalness, predation or parasitism. Such ecological differences between populations could lead to different paces-of-life (POL), whereby populations where individuals display higher reproductive investment and bolder behaviours would have lower survival probabilities. We use here long-term (19 to 38 years) monitoring datasets from four Mediterranean populations of blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) to investigate the effects of sex, age class, large-scale and local climate temporal variation and population breeding density, on adult survival, using Capture-Mark-Recapture modelling. Environment heterogeneity in these four populations (two in evergreen and two in deciduous forests) has been linked to strong multi-trait phenotypic variation, suggesting blue tits in deciduous forests display faster POL compared to their conspecifics in evergreen habitats. The present results show heterogeneity in average survival probabilities across the four populations, with, as predicted, lower survival in the fast blue tits occupying deciduous habitats. Interestingly, the year-to-year variation in survival probabilities was synchronous among populations. This suggests that regional environmental conditions could drive survival fluctuations across populations. However, breeding densities were not correlated across populations, and we found no evidence that adult survival is correlated with either large-scale or local, climate temporal variation in these four blue tit populations. Finally, two of the focal populations displayed a linear temporal decrease in adult survival over the study period, calling for further investigation to explain this decline. Overall, this multi-site study shows that blue tit parental survival from one spring to the next can vary substantially across years, in a synchronous way across populations, yet the climate indices we used are not correlated with the temporal variation. This calls for further investigations in other potential drivers such as resource (in particular insect) abundance, predation or parasitism.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Is earlier reproduction associated with higher or lower survival? Antagonistic results between individual and population scales in the blue tit

Although it has been shown that phenology can respond to temporal environmental variation in free ranging populations of several species, little is known about the mechanisms of these responses and their effects on demography, and in particular on survival. Exploring phenological responses and their associated consequences on survival can be achieved at two distinct scales: the population scale, which focusses on a set of common responses to environmental conditions, and the individual scale, focusing on the relative position of each individual in the distribution of survival and phenology under particular conditions. In this study, we apply capture-mark-recapture multistate modelling on a 38-year monitoring dataset of blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) to investigate the effects of breeding phenology and some demographic covariates (breeding density, average and individual breeding success) on adult survival, at both population and individual scales. Our analysis revealed that (i) at the population scale, early breeding years are followed by lower average adult survival. (ii) At the individual level, earlier breeders within the population have higher subsequent survival than later breeders, although this relationship is reversed in years with very harsh conditions, e.g. warm spring and high breeding density. (iii) High individual relative breeding success is also associated with higher subsequent survival and explains more survival variation than relative phenology. Overall, our study indicates that, although earlier breeding is associated with a survival cost at the population level, substantial intrapopulation hererogeneity shapes a positive association between earlier breeding, breeding success and survival at the individual level.

ecology↗