Biology subjects

Barychka, T.

Publications and source records attributed to Barychka, T..

10 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2024

Seabird and sea duck mortalities were lower during the second breeding season in eastern Canada following the introduction of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A H5Nx viruses

H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b viruses have caused significant mortality events in various wild bird species across Europe, North America, South America, and Africa. In North America, the largest impacts on wild birds have been in eastern Canada, where over 40,391 wild birds were reported to have died from highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) between April and September 2022. In the year following, we applied previously established methods to quantify total reported mortality in eastern Canada for a full year October 2022, to September 2023. In this study, we (i) document the spatial, temporal and taxonomic patterns of wild bird mortality in the 12 months that followed the mass mortality event in the summer of 2022 and (ii) quantify the observed differences in mortality across the breeding season (April to September) of 2022 and 2023. In eastern Canada, there was high uncertainty about whether 2023 would bring another year of devastating HPAI-linked mortalities. Mortalities in the breeding season were 93% lower in 2023 compared to 2022 but encompassed a more taxonomically diverse array of species. We found that mortalities in the fall and winter (non-breeding season) were dominated by waterfowl, while mortalities during the spring and summer (breeding season) were dominated by seabirds. Due to a low prevalence of HPAI among the subset of tested birds, we refrained from broadly attributing reported mortalities in 2023 to HPAI. However, our analysis did identify three notable mortality events linked to HPAI, involving at least 1,646 Greater Snow Geese, 232 Canada Geese, and 212 Northern Gannets. This study emphasizes the ongoing need for H5NX surveillance and mortality assessments as the patterns of mortality in wild populations continue to change.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Strengths and limitations of using participatory science data to characterize a wildlife mass mortality event

Large participatory science (i.e., "community science" or "citizen science") platforms are increasingly used at every level of ecological and conservation research, including disease monitoring. Here, we used a comprehensive, ground-truthed mortality dataset to judge how well participatory science data from iNaturalist represented the magnitude, taxonomic, temporal, and spatial patterns of waterbird mortality associated with a mass mortality event following the incursion of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in eastern Canada in 2022. The iNaturalist dataset was effective at identifying species with high mortality (especially Northern Gannets, Morus bassanus), along with the time period and spatial regions with high concentrations of avian deaths. However, iNaturalist data severely underestimated the magnitude, overestimated the taxonomic breadth, and poorly represented the full geographic scope of disease-related deaths. Our results suggest iNaturalist can be used to identify the species, timing, and location of relatively high mortality in situations where no other information is available, and to supplement conventional sources of data. However, iNaturalist alone can neither quantify the magnitude nor pinpoint the mechanisms of mortality and therefore is not a viable substitute for comprehensive mortality assessments.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Geographic, ecological, and temporal patterns of seabird mortality during the 2022 HPAI H5N1 outbreak on the island of Newfoundland

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 caused mass seabird mortality across the North Atlantic in 2022. Following outbreaks in Europe, the first case in North America was detected on the island of Newfoundland (NFLD), Canada in November 2021, before spreading through all North American flyways. During the following breeding season, NFLD experienced the second-highest number of seabird mortalities in Canadian provinces. Surveys and citizen reports identified 13543 seabird mortalities from April to September 2022. Many carcasses occurred on the west coast of NFLD in May and June 2022. Reported mortalities peaked in July along the southeastern coast. In August and September, mortalities were concentrated along the northeastern coast. With the exception of two colony surveys, reported mortalities decreased in September. Most mortality was found among Northern Gannet (6622), Common Murre (5992), Atlantic Puffin (282), and Black-legged Kittiwake (217). Using comprehensive knowledge of seabird ecology, we formulated exploratory hypotheses regarding traits that could contribute to mortality. Species differences in mortality were most strongly associated with nesting density, timing of breeding, and at-sea overlap with allospecifics from other colonies. Unprecedented seabird mortality and ongoing transmission within the circulating avian influenza viruses highlight the need for continued monitoring and development of conservation strategies.

zoology↗

bioRxiv2024

Wild bird mass mortalities in eastern Canada associated with the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N1) virus, 2022

In 2022, a severe outbreak of clade 2.3.4.4b Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus resulted in unprecedented mortality among wild birds in eastern Canada. Tens of thousands of birds were reported sick or dead, prompting a comprehensive assessment of mortality spanning the breeding season between April 1 and September 30, 2022. Mortality reports were collated from federal, Indigenous, provincial, and municipal agencies, the Canadian Wildlife Health Cooperative, non-governmental organizations, universities, and citizen science platforms. A scenario analysis was conducted to refine mortality estimates, accounting for potential double counts from multiple sources under a range of spatial and temporal overlap. Correcting for double counting, an estimated 40,966 wild birds were reported sick or dead in eastern Canada during the spring and summer of 2022. Seabirds and sea ducks, long-lived species that are slow to recover from perturbations, accounted for 98.7% of reported mortalities. Mortalities were greatest among Northern Gannets (Morus bassanus; 26,193), Common Murres (Uria aalge; 8,133), and American Common Eiders (Somateria mollissima dresseri; 1,945), however, these figures underestimate total mortality as they exclude unreported deaths on land and at sea. In addition to presenting mortality estimates, we compare mortalities with known population sizes and trends and make an initial assessment of whether population-level impacts are possible for the Northern Gannet, a species that has suffered significant global mortality, and two harvested species, Common Murre and American Common Eider, to support management decisions. We hypothesize that population-level impacts in eastern Canada are possible for Northern Gannets and American Common Eiders but are unlikely for Common Murres. This study underscores the urgent need for further research to understand the broader ecological ramifications of the HPAI outbreak on wild bird populations.

zoology↗

bioRxiv2023

Avian influenza viruses in wild birds in Canada following incursion of the highly pathogenic H5N1 virus from Eurasia in 2021/2022

Following detection of novel highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b in Newfoundland, Canada in late 2021, avian influenza surveillance in wild birds was scaled-up across Canada. Herein, we present results of Canadas Interagency Surveillance Program for Avian Influenza in wild birds during the first year (November 2021 - November 2022) following the incursions of HPAIV from Eurasia. Key objectives of the surveillance program were to (i) detect the presence, distribution and spread of HPAIV and other avian influenza viruses (AIVs), (ii) detect wild bird morbidity and mortality associated with HPAIV, (iii) identify the range of wild bird species infected by HPAIV, and (iv) characterize detected AIV. A total of 6,246 sick and dead wild birds were tested, of which 27.4% were HPAIV positive across 12 taxonomic orders and 80 species. Geographically, HPAIV detections occurred in all Canadian provinces and territories, with the highest numbers in the Atlantic and Central flyways. Temporally, peak detections differed across flyways, though the national peak occurred in April 2022. In an additional 11,295 asymptomatic harvested or live captured wild birds, 5.2% were HPAIV positive across 3 taxonomic orders and 19 species. Whole genome sequencing identified HPAIV of Eurasian origin as most prevalent in the Atlantic flyway, along with multiple reassortants of mixed Eurasian and North American origins distributed across Canada, with moderate structuring at the flyway scale. Wild birds were victims and reservoirs of HPAIV H5N1 2.3.4.4b, underscoring the importance of surveillance encompassing samples from sick and dead, as well as live and harvested birds to provide insights into the dynamics and potential impacts of the HPAIV H5N1 outbreak. This dramatic shift in presence and distribution of HPAIV in wild birds in Canada highlights a need for sustained investment in wild bird surveillance and collaboration across One Health partners.

zoology↗

bioRxiv2023

High pathogenicity avian influenza (H5N1) in Northern Gannets: Global spread, clinical signs, and demographic consequences

During 2021-22 High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) killed thousands of wild birds across Europe and North America, suggesting a change in infection dynamics and a shift to new hosts, including seabirds. Northern Gannets (Morus bassanus) appeared especially severely impacted, but limited understanding of how the virus spread across the metapopulation, or the demographic consequences of mass mortality limit our understanding of its severity. Accordingly, we collate information on HPAIV outbreaks across most North Atlantic gannet colonies and for the largest colony (Bass Rock, UK), provide impacts on population size, breeding success, adult survival, and preliminary results on serology. Unusually high numbers of dead gannets were first noted in Iceland during April 2022. Outbreaks in May occurred in many Scottish colonies, followed by colonies in Canada, Germany and Norway. By the end of June, outbreaks had occurred in five Canadian colonies and in the Channel Islands. Outbreaks in 12 UK and Ireland colonies appeared to follow a clockwise pattern with the last infected colonies recorded in late August/September. Unusually high mortality was recorded at 40 colonies (75% of global total colonies). Dead birds testing positive for HPAIV H5N1 were associated with 58% of these colonies. At Bass Rock, the number of occupied sites decreased by at least 71%, breeding success declined by [~]66% compared to the long-term UK mean and adult survival between 2021 and 2022 was 42% lower than the preceding 10-year average. Serological investigation detected antibodies specific to H5 in apparently healthy birds indicating that some gannets recover from HPAIV infection. Further, most of these recovered birds had black irises, suggestive of a phenotypic indicator of previous infection. Untangling the impacts of HPAIV infection from other key pressures faced by seabirds is key to establishing effective conservation strategies for threatened seabird populations, HPAIV being a novel and pandemic threat.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Species Richness and Speciation Rates for all Terrestrial Animals Emerge from a Synthesis of Ecological Theories

AO_SCPLOWBSTRACTC_SCPLOWThe total number of species on earth and the rate at which new species are created are fundamental questions for ecology, evolution and conservation. These questions have typically been approached separately, despite their obvious interconnection. In this manuscript we approach both questions in conjunction, for all terrestrial animals, which enables a more holistic integration and generates novel emergent predictions. To do this, we combine two previously unconnected bodies of theory: general ecosystem modelling and individual based ecological neutral theory. General ecosystem models provide us with estimated numbers of individual organisms, separated by functional group and body size. Neutral theory, applied within a guild of functionally similar individuals, connects species richness, speciation rate and number of individual organisms. In combination, for terrestrial endotherms where species numbers are known, they provide us with estimates for speciation rates as a function of body size and diet class. Extrapolating the same rates to guilds of ectotherms enables us to estimate the species richness of those groups, including species yet to be described. We find that speciation rates per species per million years decrease with increasing body size. Rates are also higher for carnivores compared to omnivores or herbivores of the same body size. Our estimate for the total number of terrestrial species of animals is in the range 1.03 - 2.92 million species, a value consistent with estimates from previous studies, despite having used a fundamentally new approach. Perhaps what is most remarkable about these results is that they have been obtained using only limited data from larger endotherms and their speciation rates, with the rest of the predictive process being based on mechanistic theory. This work illustrates the potential of a new approach to classic eco-evolutionary questions, while also adding weight to existing predictions. As we now face an era of dramatic biological change, new methods will be needed to mechanistically model global biodiversity at the species and individual organism level. This will be a huge challenge but the combination of general ecosystem models and neutral theory that we introduce here could be the only way to tractably achieve it.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Modelling parameter uncertainty reveals bushmeat yield versus survival trade-offs in heavily-hunted duiker Cephalophus spp.

Reliably predicting sustainable exploitation levels for many tropical species subject to hunting remains a difficult task, largely because of the inherent uncertainty associated with estimating parameters related to both population dynamics and hunting pressure. Here, we investigate a modelling approach to support decisions in bushmeat management which explicitly considers parameter uncertainty. We apply the approach to duiker Cephalophus spp., assuming either a constant quota-based, or a constant proportional harvesting, strategy. Within each strategy, we evaluate different hunting levels in terms of both average yield and survival probability, over different time horizons. Under quota-based harvesting, considering uncertainty revealed a trade-off between yield and extinction probability that was not evident when ignoring uncertainty. The highest yield was returned by a quota that implied a 40% extinction risk, whereas limiting extinction risk to 10% reduced yield by 50%-70%. By contrast, under proportional harvesting, there was no trade-off between yield and extinction probability. The maximum proportion returned a yield comparable with the maximum possible under quota-based harvesting, but with extinction risk below 10%. However, proportional harvesting can be harder to implement in practice because it depends on an estimate of population size. In both harvesting approaches, predicted yields were highly right-skewed with median yields differing from mean yields, implying that decision outcomes depend on attitude to risk. The analysis shows how an explicit consideration of all available information, including uncertainty, can, as part of a wider process involving multiple stakeholders, help inform harvesting policies.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

The Madingley General Ecosystem Model predicts bushmeat yields, species extinction rates and ecosystem-level impacts of bushmeat harvesting

Traditional approaches to guiding decisions about harvesting bushmeat often employ single-species population dynamic models, which require species- and location-specific data, are missing ecological processes such as multi-trophic interactions, cannot represent multi-species harvesting, and cannot predict the broader ecosystem impacts of harvesting. In order to explore an alternative approach to devising sustainable harvesting strategies, we employ the Madingley General Ecosystem Model, which can simulate ecosystem dynamics in response to multi-species harvesting given nothing other than location-specific climate data. We used the model to examine yield, extinctions, and broader ecosystem impacts, for a range of harvesting intensities of duiker-sized ectothermic herbivores. Duiker antelope (such as Cephalophus callipygus and Cephalophus dorsalis) are the most heavily hunted species in sub-Saharan Africa, contributing 34%-95% of all bushmeat in the Congo Basin. Across a range of harvesting rates, the Madingley model gave estimates for optimal harvesting rate, and extinction rate, that were qualitatively and quantitatively similar to the estimates from single-species Beverton-Holt model. Predicted yields were somewhat greater (around 5 times, on average) for the Madingley model, which would be expected given that the Madingley simulates multi-species harvesting from an initially pristine ecosystem. This match increased the degree of confidence with which we could examine other predictions from the ecosystem model, as follows. At medium and high levels of harvesting of duiker-sized herbivores, there were statistically significant, but moderate, reductions in the densities of the targeted functional group; increases in small-bodied herbivores; decreases in large-bodied carnivores; and minimal ecosystem-level impacts overall. The results suggest that general ecosystem models such as the Madingley model could be used more widely to help estimate sustainable harvesting rates, bushmeat yields and broader ecosystem impacts across different locations and target species.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Modelling variation in bushmeat harvesting among seven African ecosystems using the Madingley Model: yield, survival and ecosystem impacts

In principle, both the maximum sustainable yields of bushmeat, and the ecosystem impacts of extracting those yields, are likely to vary among ecosystems due to differences in the structure and function of ecosystems, but the data necessary to estimate this variation is lacking. Here, we compare seven different ecosystems on a North-South latitudinal gradient in Central Africa in terms of their trophic structure and capacity to support yields from bushmeat harvesting, using the Madingley General Ecosystem Model. The only factor that varies across simulations of these ecosystems is the climate which drives differences in vegetation structure and function, leading in turn to differences in the structure of the ecological community that emerge from the model. In a series of experiments (n=30), we simulate constant proportional harvesting of small and medium-sized warm-bloodied heterotrophs (1-23kg) over 30 years, recording expected bushmeat yields, and impacts on ecosystem structure, including trophic structure. Predictions for animal densities and trophic structures in the pristine (no harvesting) case varied among the ecosystems, with implications for bushmeat harvesting. For example, wooded savannah ecosystems stood out as having the greatest pristine densities in the target groups (11000-12000 animals per kilometre squared), greatest yields (100% higher than the tropical forest and 1000% higher than the desert ecosystem), and were the most resilient to harvesting. By contrast, small and medium-sized endothermic heterotrophs contributed only a small proportion of heterotrophs in the desert ecosystem, and thus the potential for bushmeat harvesting here was low. In all ecosystems, harvesting at the rate that maximised yield (55-65% population per year, except for the southern desert ecosystem) had strong impacts, causing drastic reductions in target functional groups, coupled with increases in smaller- and larger-bodied animals. Forest and desert ecosystems were particularly sensitive. Overall, the results suggest that, even for similar functional groups, bushmeat harvesting policies will need to vary substantially among ecosystems - and show that general ecosystem models could be a useful tool in helping to guide these policies.

ecology↗