Barreaux, A. M. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2025

Modelling framework to demonstrate elimination of a vector population: tsetse elimination in Chad

Every year, over 700 000 people, particularly children under five, die from vector-borne diseases worldwide. Effectively controlling current endemics and preventing new outbreaks requires an integrated approach that can lead to the elimination of both vectors and diseases. In the last two decades, integrating medical interventions and vector control has significantly reduced the incidence of Gambian Human African Trypanosomiasis (gHAT), with the World Health Organization validating eight countries as having eliminated the disease as a public health problem. However, elimination of the tsetse vector has not been confirmed, leaving the possibility of re-emergence. We developed a five-step modelling framework to assess vector elimination by calculating: (i) the probability of vector capture; (ii) the probability of observing a series of zero catches, even without actual elimination; (iii) the probability of natural elimination; (iv) the probability of failing to detect a rebound; and (v) the reinvasion risk. Our case study is g-HAT in Mandoul, Chad and the elimination of G. fuscipes fuscipes. We used vector control from 2014 to 2025 with no tsetse detected since 2018. We cannot yet conclude, with more than 90% confidence, that tsetse has been eliminated from Mandoul, nor that any remnant population will be naturally eliminated. However, since vector control was stopped in April 2025, we estimate that with continued sampling over the next two years, and no tsetse detected, elimination could be demonstrated with 99% confidence. Our multi-step modelling framework can be applied to other vectors, providing policymakers with clear guidelines for ongoing and future efforts. Significance StatementThe World Health Organisation has set the elimination of transmission of several neglected tropical vector-borne diseases, including human African trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness), as a target for 2030. We show that deliberate elimination of tsetse, the vector, is feasible and can be demonstrated. We draw on our large-scale intervention in Mandoul, Chad where 3000 insecticide-treated Tiny Targets were deployed between 2014 and 2025, with no tsetse detected since 2018. While small undetected remnant populations cannot be entirely excluded, they would rapidly rebound in the absence of control, rendering them detectable. If no tsetse are caught over the next two years, it will confirm elimination. This illustrates a pathway for assessing and achieving vector elimination as a cornerstone of disease eradication.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

How does host age and nutrition affect density regulation of obligate versus facultative bacterial symbionts? Insights from the tsetse fly

The relationships between insect hosts and their symbionts can vary tremendously in the extent to which hosts depend on and control their symbionts. Obligate symbionts that provide micronutrients to their host are often compartmentalised to specialised host organs and depend on their hosts for survival, whereas facultative symbionts retain the ability to survive outside of their hosts. Few studies compare the extent to which a host controls and adjusts the density of obligate and facultative symbionts directly. Here, we used tsetse as a model for teasing apart the relationships between a host (Glossina morsitans morsitans) and obligate (Wigglesworthia glossinidia) and facultative (Sodalis glossinidius) symbionts. We hypothesised that tsetse actively regulate the density of Wigglesworthia according to the hosts requirements, depending on their current nutritional state and developmental age. In contrast, we postulated that Sodalis retains some independence from host control, and that the growth of this symbiont is dependent on the conditions of the immediate environment, such as nutrient availability. Using qPCR, we examined how symbiont densities change across host age and the hunger cycle. Additionally, we investigated how host nutrition influences symbiont density, by comparing tsetse that were fed diluted blood (poor nutrition) or blood supplemented with yeast extract (vitamin enriched). We found that the density of Wigglesworthia did not reflect the nutritional status of the host, but was optimised to accommodate long-term host requirements (in terms of nutrient provisioning). In contrast, the density of facultative Sodalis was influenced by the ecological context (i.e. nutrient availability). This suggests that tsetse regulate the abundance of Wigglesworthia to a greater extent than Sodalis. We propose that tsetse exert only partial control over Sodalis growth due to the relatively recent transition of this symbiont to host-associated living. Author summarySymbiotic microbes have the potential to significantly impact the wider ecosystem by affecting the fitness and behaviour of their animal hosts. The density of a particular symbiont population within host tissues is likely an important factor influencing the effect it has on the host, however, little is known about the factors which determine how symbiont density is regulated, and how these differ between symbionts with different degrees of host-association (e.g. obligate and facultative symbionts). Here, we found that Wigglesworthia and Sodalis, two bacterial tsetse symbionts, demonstrate distinct trends in density according to host age and nutrition. We discuss how the evolutionary histories of these symbionts with their host potentially explain these results, highlighting the complexity and dynamic nature of host-symbiont interactions. Our findings contribute to our understanding of the extent to which hosts and symbionts control symbiont density and how symbiont density regulation can be affected by the ecological context.

evolutionary biology↗