Using deep learning to predict internalizing problems from brain structure
Internalizing problems (e.g., anxiety and depression) are associated with a wide range of adverse outcomes. While some predictors of internalizing problems are known (e.g., their frequent co-occurrence with neurodevelopmental (ND) conditions), the biological markers of internalizing problems are not well understood. Here, we used deep learning, a powerful tool for identifying complex and multi-dimensional brain-behaviour relationships, to predict cross-sectional and worsening longitudinal trajectories of internalizing problems. Data were extracted from four large-scale datasets: the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development study, the Healthy Brain Network, the Human Connectome Project Development study, and the Province of Ontario Neurodevelopmental network. We developed deep learning models that used measures of brain structure (thickness, surface area, and volume) to (a) predict clinically significant internalizing problems cross-sectionally (N=14,523); and (b) predict subsequent worsening trajectories (using the reliable change index) of internalizing problems (N=10,540) longitudinally. A stratified cross-validation scheme was used to tune, train, and test the models, which were evaluated using the area under the receiving operating characteristic curve (AUC). The cross-sectional model performed well across the sample, reaching an AUC of 0.80[95% CI: 0.71,0.88]. For the longitudinal model, while performance was sub-optimal for predicting worsening trajectories in a sample of the general population (AUC=0.66[0.65,0.67]), good performance was achieved in a small, external test set of primarily ND conditions (AUC=0.80[0.78,0.81]), as well as across all ND conditions (AUC=0.73[0.70,0.76]). Deep learning with features of brain structure is a promising avenue for biomarkers of internalizing problems, particularly for individuals who have a higher likelihood of experiencing difficulties.