Avetisyan, P. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2026

Plague-driven selection enriched familial Mediterranean fever mutations in Armenia

The discovery that positive selection due to resistance to malarial infection maintained the prevalence of sickle cell and other disease alleles was a landmark in evolution, genetics and epidemiology. Mutations in the MEFV gene causing familial Mediterranean fever with high frequency in Eastern Mediterranean populations give the only other strong candidates for a similar process. Here we estimate a pathogenic MEFV mutation burden in Armenians with a carrier rate of ~41%: a worldwide maximum. By combining these data with regional ancient MEFV genotypes spanning more than 60 centuries, we establish that the allele frequencies of three mutations M694V, M680I, and V726A underwent recent rapid increases, indicating positive selection with an onset consistent with the first Yersinia pestis plague pandemic, ~541 CE to 767 CE or even earlier in time, echoing functional data implying resistance to this infection as the selective agent. This extends to three the number of MEFV variants for which there is evidence for strong concurrent selection at this locus in the Eastern Mediterranean, making it unlikely that this geographic peak resulted from chance alone. Although bubonic plague was extremely widespread, the restricted geography of this selection points toward the Eastern Mediterranean as a longstanding enzootic centre with continuous recycling of outbreaks.

genomics↗

bioRxiv2022

Stable population structure in Europe since the Iron Age, despite high mobility

Ancient DNA research in the past decade has revealed that European population structure changed dramatically in the prehistoric period (14,000-3,000 years before present, YBP), reflecting the widespread introduction of Neolithic farmer and Bronze Age Steppe ancestries. However, little is known about how population structure changed from the historical period onward (3,000 YBP - present). To address this, we collected whole genomes from 204 individuals from Europe and the Mediterranean, many of which are the first historical period genomes from their region (e.g. Armenia and France). We found that most regions show remarkable inter-individual heterogeneity. At least 7% of historical individuals carry ancestry uncommon in the region where they were sampled, some indicating cross-Mediterranean contacts. Despite this high level of mobility, overall population structure across western Eurasia is relatively stable through the historical period up to the present, mirroring geography. We show that, under standard population genetics models with local panmixia, the observed level of dispersal would lead to a collapse of population structure. Persistent population structure thus suggests a lower effective migration rate than indicated by the observed dispersal. We hypothesize that this phenomenon can be explained by extensive transient dispersal arising from drastically improved transportation networks and the Roman Empires mobilization of people for trade, labor, and military. This work highlights the utility of ancient DNA in elucidating finer scale human population dynamics in recent history.

genetics↗