Ashlock, S. R. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2024

Accelerated phenology fails to buffer fitness loss from delayed rain onset in a clade of wildflowers

The timing of early life cycle events has cascading effects on phenology and fitness. These effects may be critical for climate resilience of plant populations, especially in Mediterranean environments, where delayed rainfall onset causes delayed germination. To examine impacts of germination timing on ten species of the Streptanthus/Caulanthus clade, we induced germination across a range of dates in ambient seasonal conditions and recorded phenological and fitness traits. Later germination cohorts accelerated flowering, partially stabilizing flowering date, but the degree of this compensatory plasticity differed across species. Fitness declined with later germination; the magnitude of this decline depended on the balance between direct negative effects of later germination and compensatory positive effects of accelerated flowering. The resulting species differences in fitness responses suggest differential vulnerability to climate change. Species from wetter, cooler, less variable habitats accelerated flowering more and declined less in seed set with later germination, suggesting climate adaptation. However, other fitness responses to germination timing, like first year fitness, were evolutionarily labile across the clade and unrelated to climate. Although compensatory phenological plasticity may buffer the impacts of delayed germination, it cannot prevent long term declines in population fitness as fall rains come later with climate change.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2023

Germination responses to experimental rainfall timing identify potential vulnerability to climate change across a clade of California wildflowers

The timing of germination, driven by seasonal cues, is critical for the life cycle of plants. Variation among species in germination responses can reflect evolutionary processes and adaptation to local climate and can affect vulnerability to changing conditions. Indeed, climate change is altering the timing of precipitation and associated temperatures, which may interact with germination cueing to affect the timing, quantity, and speed of germination. Germination responses to change can then have consequences for individual fitness, population dynamics, and species distributions. Here, we assessed responses to the timing of germination-triggering rains and corresponding temperatures for 11 species spanning the Streptanthus (s.l.) clade (Brassicaceae). To do so, we experimentally manipulated the onset date of rainfall events, measured effects on germination fraction and rate, and evaluated whether responses were constrained by evolutionary relationships across the phylogeny. We then explored the possible consequences of these responses to contemporary shifts in precipitation timing. Later onset rains and cooler temperatures significantly reduced germination rates for all species. Germination fractions decreased with later rains and cooler temperatures for all but three Caulanthus species. Species germination responses to the timing of rainfall and seasonal temperatures were phylogenetically constrained, with Caulanthus species appearing less sensitive. Further, six species are likely already experiencing significant decreases in germination fractions or rates (or both) with observed climate change, which has shifted the timing of rainfall towards the cooler, winter months in California. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of the germination responses to seasonal timing, how they have evolved across the clade, and their implications under climate change.

plant biology↗