Biology subjects

Arneth, A.

Publications and source records attributed to Arneth, A..

6 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Expansion and increase of human pressures on global land ecosystems between 1990 and 2020

We present a spatially explicit, global-scale index to assess the effects of the five direct anthropogenic drivers of biodiversity loss identified by the IPBES: land use change, natural resource extraction, climate change, pollution, and invasive alien species. The Biodiversity Pressure Index (BPI) covers 30 years (1990-2020) with an annual time-step and a spatial resolution of 0.1{degrees}. We find that the coverage of drivers in available data varies and we highlight the key uncertainties that result from this. Using the best available data, we show that large parts of the terrestrial biosphere (approximately 89%, including Antarctica and Greenland) are under medium or high human pressure and that almost all areas (approximately 96%) have experienced an increase in pressure over the past three decades. The BPI shows varied spatial and temporal patterns across world regions and biomes, but many of these areas are dominated by pressures associated with rising temperatures and trade flows. Tropical and subtropical areas are subject to particularly rapidly-growing pressures, while wetlands consistently show the highest pressure levels across biomes. In revealing these and other patterns, the BPI provides a basis for improved understanding and management of biodiversity impacts in the future.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

TOWARDS CLIMATE-SMART REWILDING: AN INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK FOR BIODIVERSITY, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND SOCIETY

The UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration and the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework aim to restore 30% of degraded ecosystems. Both the IPCC and IPBES highlight the crucial role of ecosystem restoration in addressing the interconnected crises of climate change and biodiversity loss. One key restoration strategy is rewilding, which enhances ecosystem complexity with minimal human intervention. While traditional rewilding strategies often focus on benefits for biodiversity, we propose a climate-smart rewilding framework as a new approach designed to deliver climate benefits alongside biodiversity restoration. This framework seeks to integrate biodiversity, climate change adaptation and mitigation, as well as socio-economic benefits and trade-offs. We illustrate how this framework can be utilized to identify areas across Europe where rewilding could increase carbon sequestration, enhance species abilities to adapt to the velocity of climate change, and maximize wildlife-watching benefits while minimizing the costs associated with livestock-wildlife conflict. Finally, we acknowledge some limitations of climate-smart rewilding, but we argue that its adaptability and low cost render it a promising solution to the challenges facing Europe and beyond.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Forest production efficiency increases with growth temperature

Introductory paragraphWe present a global analysis of the relationship of forest production efficiency (FPE) to stand age and climate, based on a large compilation of data on gross primary production and either biomass production or net primary production. FPE is important for both forest production and atmospheric carbon dioxide uptake. Earlier findings - FPE declining with age - are supported by this analysis. However, FPE also increases with absolute latitude, precipitation and (all else equal) with temperature. The temperature effect is opposite to what would be expected based on the short-term physiological response of respiration rates to temperature. It implies top-down regulation of forest carbon loss, perhaps reflecting the higher carbon costs of nutrient acquisition in colder climates. Current ecosystem models do not reproduce this phenomenon. They consistently predict lower FPE in warmer climates, and are therefore likely to overestimate carbon losses in a warming climate.

plant biology↗

bioRxiv2020

Global trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Despite the scientific consensus on the extinction crisis and its anthropogenic origin, the quantification of historical trends and of future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services has been limited, due to the lack of inter-model comparisons and harmonized scenarios. Here, we present a multi-model analysis to assess the impacts of land-use and climate change from 1900 to 2050. During the 20th century provisioning services increased, but biodiversity and regulating services decreased. Similar trade-offs are projected for the coming decades, but they may be attenuated in a sustainability scenario. Future biodiversity loss from land-use change is projected to keep up with historical rates or reduce slightly, whereas losses due to climate change are projected to increase greatly. Renewed efforts are needed by governments to meet the 2050 vision of the Convention on Biological Diversity. One Sentence SummaryDevelopment pathways exist that allow for a reduction of the rates of biodiversity loss from land-use change and improvement in regulating services but climate change poses an increasing challenge.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Pitfalls in estimating the global carbon removal via forest expansion - a comment on Bastin et al. (2019)

We believe the carbon removal potential of 205 Gt C reported by Bastin et al. (2019) to be overestimated. The authors did not consider the carbon already stored on the land with identified tree restoration potential. For instance, grasslands and degraded forests have similar soil carbon stocks as old-growth forests. Accounting for these inconsistencies in the calculation, we estimate a carbon removal potential of 81 Gt C, i.e. only 39% of the Bastin et al. estimate. In addition, some of the assumptions about potential restoration area seem questionable and an essential question remains unanswered: why do areas identified as suitable for tree growth currently lack tree cover?

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

Abstract.To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e. natures contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenarios selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem service models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modelling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modelling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.

ecology↗