Ani, C. J. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2026

CoralBlox: A computationally efficient coral model for decision support

Coral reef management under climate change is challenging due to data sparsity and high uncertainty, yet it is essential for informing conservation strategies. We present CoralBlox, a mechanistic discrete time coral ecology model with the explicit aim of supporting rapid scenario exploration and decision making. The model represents discretized distributions of five coral functional groups across configurable spatial scales while incorporating key ecological processes, including coral growth, reproduction, thermal adaptation, and responses to disturbances. Validation against observed data demonstrates that CoralBlox effectively captures major trends in coral cover dynamics across the Great Barrier Reef, particularly for bleaching-driven mortality and recovery patterns. While simplifying ecological complexities, the model maintains sufficient ecological realism to evaluate and compare the result of distinct management strategies. CoralBlox enables comprehensive assessment of potential management interventions with high computational efficiency and interoperability. The model's flexible architecture makes it extensible to coral ecosystems worldwide, providing valuable exploratory capability for reef management.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

Importance of depth refugia for reef resilience and intervention on the Great Barrier Reef under future climate change

Coral reefs globally face unprecedented threats from climate change, with the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) experiencing cumulative stressors and increasingly severe declines in coral cover from thermal stress events. Understanding drivers behind reef resilience to climate impacts is critical for conservation planning and intervention strategies. A scenario-based population modelling approach was adopted with larval connectivity dynamics and environmental factors to assess coral reef resilience across the GBR using projected conditions under five Global Climate Models (GCMs). Projected coral cover was analysed for each reefs ability to maintain positive carbonate production budgets under future conditions, using coral cover as a proxy. Larval connectivity patterns did not correlate with increases in maintenance of positive carbonate budgets. Instead, reef depth emerged as the primary predictor, with deeper reefs (>10m) benefitting from reduced thermal exposure. These findings suggest that depth is a tangible and pragmatic reef characteristic to consider in future intervention practices for coral reef restoration. These results have important implications for reef management, indicating that depth should be considered as a key variable in conservation planning to maximize coral survival under continuing climate change.

ecology↗