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bioRxiv2025

A system dynamics model to understand the integrated ecological and human dimension aspects of wildlife health and disease management

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) presents an ongoing challenge for the management of deer populations and sustaining harvest opportunities across North America. Existing disease models often fail to fully capture the complex interplay between disease dynamics, host ecology, and socio-economic factors. We developed a comprehensive system dynamics (SD) model that integrates demographic, epidemiological, ecological, and socio-economic processes within a single model to more fully characterize the complex network of causal feedbacks throughout the system. The model was calibrated using a Bayesian approach that incorporates prior knowledge to generate biologically interpretable outcomes, even with sparse data. For estimating the joint posterior distribution of model parameters, we leveraged time series of deer abundance, harvest composition, genetic profiles, CWD surveillance, and hunter demographics and behavior. Model outputs reproduced key system behaviors, including observed CWD prevalence trends, deer population dynamics, and hunter license purchasing patterns. Model predictions were most sensitive to parameters governing initial deer population size and recruitment. While model predictions generally aligned with observed data, discrepancies in early CWD detection and overestimation of the reactivation of long-inactive hunters reflect data limitations and modeling challenges. Key results suggest that indirect transmission is necessary to explain observed prevalence, that transmission is moderately density-dependent, and that observed population-level genetic shifts driven by CWD may play a role in transmission and progression. The SD modelling approach enabled estimation of difficult-to-measure parameters and identified potential leverage points for management--such as prioritizing increasing participation in antlerless harvest of existing hunters over the recruitment of new hunters. This integrated modeling approach offers a flexible foundation for adaptive wildlife disease management and emphasizes the value of unifying biological and human dimension processes to better inform effective, evidence-based policy.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Integrating remote sensing and jurisdictional observation networks to improve the resolution of ecological management

The emergence of citizen science, passive sensors (e.g., trail cameras and acoustic monitoring), and satellite remote sensing have enabled biological data to be collected at unprecedented spatial and temporal scales. There is growing interest in networking these datastreams to expedite the collection and synthesis of environmental and biological data to improve broad-scale ecological monitoring, but there are no examples of such networks being developed to directly inform decision-making by managing agencies. Here, we present the implementation of one such jurisdictional observation network (JON), Snapshot Wisconsin (SW), that links satellite remote sensing (RS) with a volunteer-based trail camera network to generate new insights into wildlife distributions and improve their management by the state agency. SW relies on citizen scientists to deploy trail cameras across the state and classify images of wildlife. As of early 2020 SW comprises nearly 1800 volunteers hosting >2100 active cameras recording >37 million images across a sampling effort of >2000 combined trap-years at >3300 distinct camera locations. We use a set of case studies to demonstrate the potential power of a JON to monitor wildlife with unprecedented combinations of spatial, temporal, and biological resolution and extent. Specifically, we demonstrate that SW markedly improves the spatial and temporal resolution with which black bear distributions can be monitored or forecast, in turn improving the resolution of decision-making. Enhancing the biological resolution of monitoring (e.g., monitoring the distribution of species traits or behaviors) may provide new insights into population drivers, such as the connection between vegetation productivity and white-tailed deer foraging behaviors. Enhanced taxonomic extent provided by trail cameras and other passive sensor networks provide managers new information for a wide range of species and communities that are not otherwise monitored. Our cases further show that JONs synergize existing monitoring practices by serving as a complementary and independent line of evidence or as a tool to enhance the extent and precision of existing models through integrated modeling approaches. SW and other JONS are a powerful new tool for agencies to better achieve their missions and reshape the nature of environmental decision-making.

ecology↗