Amin, R. J. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2022

Landscape functional connectivity for butterflies under different scenarios of land-use, land-cover, and climate change in Australia

Pollinating invertebrates are vital to terrestrial ecosystems but are impacted by anthropogenic habitat loss/fragmentation and climate change. Conserving and improving landscape connectivity is important to offset those threats, yet its assessment for invertebrates is lacking. In this study, we evaluated the functional connectivity between protected areas in Australia for 59 butterfly species, under present conditions and different future scenarios (for 2050 and 2090) of land-use, land-cover, and climate change. Using circuit-theory analysis, we found that functional connectivity under present conditions varies widely between species, even when their estimated geographical ranges are similar. Under future scenarios, functional connectivity is predicted to decrease overall, with negative changes worsening from 2050 to 2090, although a few species are positive exceptions. We have made our results available as spatial datasets to allow comparisons with taxa from other studies and can be used to identify priority areas for conservation in terms of establishing ecological corridors or stepping-stone habitat patches. Our study highlights the importance of considering pollinating invertebrates when seeking holistic conservation and restoration of a landscapes functional connectivity, underscoring the need to expand and promote protected areas to facilitate functional connectivity under future scenarios of global change. Research DataThe habitat suitability maps and functional connectivity maps are made available as GeoTiff images via Figshare (10.6084/m9.figshare.19130078).

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Hot, unpredictable weather interacts with land use to restrict the distribution of the Yellow-tailed Black-Cockatoo

Conserving nomadic species is challenging due to the difficulty in monitoring their characteristically transient populations, and thereby detecting range-wide declines. An example is the Yellow-tailed Black-Cockatoo (YTBC; Zanda funerea), which disperses widely in search of food and is regularly--but sporadically--observed across eastern Australia. Under climate warming, a general southward shift in species distributions is expected in the southern hemisphere, with the extreme southern margins being truncated by an ocean barrier. Given these constraints, we ask whether sufficient refugia will exist for the YTBC in the future, by: (i) modelling habitat relationships within current geographic range of the YTBC based on weather, climate, vegetation, and land use, and (ii) using this framework, coupled with climate-model projections, to forecast 21st century impacts. Intensive land use and high variability in temperature and rainfall seem to most limit YTBC occurrence. In contrast, areas with a cooler, stable climate, and a network of old-growth forests, such as occurs in parts of south-eastern Australia and Tasmania, are most suitable for the species. As Australia becomes progressively hotter under climate change, the preferred bioclimatic envelope of the YTBC is forecast to contract poleward (as a general pattern) and to fragment within the existing range. However, despite an extensive loss of climatically suitable regions, the YTBC might find stable refugia at the southern margins of its geographic range, although continued loss of old-growth forests undermines their nesting potential. Therefore, beyond habitat conservation, creating nesting opportunities within plantation forests would likely be an effective conservation strategy to preserve habitat quality in climate refugia.

ecology↗