Alfaro-Shigueto, J. | Search bioRxiv

bioRxiv2026

From Recovery to Risk: Intensifying ENSO Events Drive Extirpation Risk in a Marine Predator

Climate change poses a major threat to marine mammal populations, many of which remain vulnerable after years of overexploitation during the 17th to 20th centuries. Extreme climate events have grown in both frequency and severity in recent decades, and this trend is projected to accelerate under continued greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we assess how this intensification affects a top marine predator at the epicentre of extreme El Nino events - the Peruvian population of Otaria byronia (South American sea lion). We first apply a Bayesian population model that best predicts observed population dynamics to reconstruct female O. byronia population trends, estimate vital rates, and evaluate the effects of environmental drivers on survival and reproduction. We then use the same model to project extirpation risk under multiple future climate scenarios reflecting anticipated increases in both the intensity and frequency of extreme El Nino events. Our reconstruction reveals that the Peruvian O. byronia population has shown considerable resilience to episodic El Nino events over the past quarter-century, likely sustained by high female survival during normal and favourable years. However, under a scenario of moderate increases in El Nino frequency and intensity, the probability of extirpation over the next 50 years is 83.4% higher than under current conditions. As disturbance regimes intensify globally, we suggest that resilience-oriented management frameworks, grounded in species-specific demographic data and environmental context, as demonstrated here, will be essential for safeguarding marine mammal populations against an increasingly volatile climate.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Disconnects in global discourses - the unintended consequences of marine mammal protection on small-scale fishers

Globally, the populations of many marine mammals remain of critical concern after centuries of exploitation and hunting. However, some marine mammal populations (e.g. pinnipeds) have largely recovered from exploitation, and interactions between these species and fisheries--particularly small-scale fisheries--is once again of concern globally. The large scope and widespread scale of interactions highlights the local disconnect between two global policies: marine mammal conservation and small-scale fisheries protection. In this research, we explore these conflicting global policies by assessing the perceptions of coastal small-scale fishers in Peru and Chile regarding their interactions with pinnipeds, including the South American sea lion (Otaria flavescens) and South American fur seal (Arctocephalus australis). We surveyed 301 gill net fishers and assess perceptions using a best-worst scaling methodology. We find that fishers are chiefly concerned with the increase in pinniped populations, perceive that their interactions with pinnipeds have significantly increased over the past 80 years, and report pinniped-driven catch and income losses [≥] 26 per cent. Surprisingly, fishers do not believe that compensation schemes will resolve this issue--instead they overwhelmingly call for pinniped population culls. The reported number of pinnipeds illegally killed by fishers suggests the potential for large negative impacts on these protected species, and a loss of legitimacy in marine regulation. Collectively, our results portray a sense of marginalisation from fishers--that global policy treats them as less "important" than marine mammals. Our results highlight the increasing disconnect in global policy, which on one hand seeks to protect threatened marine mammal populations, and on the other seeks to promote the welfare of small-scale fishers.

ecology↗