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Akcakaya, R.

Publications and source records attributed to Akcakaya, R..

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Inter-specific Variability in Demographic Processes Affects Abundance-Occupancy Relationships

Species with large local abundances tend to occupy more sites. One of the mechanisms proposed to explain this widely reported inter-specific relationship is a cross-scale hypothesis based on dynamics at the population level. Called the vital rates mechanism, it uses within-population demographic processes of population growth and density dependence to predict when inter-specific abundance-occupancy relationships can arise and when these relationships can weaken and even turn negative. Even though the vital rates mechanism is mathematically simple, its predictions has never been tested directly because of the difficulty estimating the demographic parameters involved. Here, using a recently introduced mark-recapture analysis method, we show that there is a weakly positive relationship between abundance and occupancy among 17 bird species. Our results are consistent with the predictions of the vital rate mechanism regarding the demographic processes that are expected to weaken this relationship. Specifically, we find that intrinsic growth rate and local abundance are weakly correlated; and density dependence strength shows considerable variation across species. Variability in density dependence strength is related to variability in species-level local average abundance and intrinsic growth rate; species with lower growth rate have higher abundance and are strongly regulated by density dependent processes, especially acting on survival rates. Species with higher growth rate, on average, have lower abundance and are more weakly regulated by density dependent processes especially acting on fecundity. More generally, our findings support a cross scale mechanism of macroecological abundance-occupancy relationship emerging from density-dependent dynamics at the population level.

ecology

Estimating fecundity and density dependence from mark-recapture data for making population projections

Forecasting changes in size and distributions of populations is at the forefront of ecological sciences in the 21st century. Such forecasts require robust estimators of fecundity, survival and density-dependence. While survival estimation is the main focus of mark-recapture modelling, fecundity and density dependence are rarely the subject of these models. Here, we demonstrate that these parameters can be simultaneously estimated in a Bayesian framework using only robust design mark-recapture data. Using simulated capture histories, we show that this framework (which we named CJS-pop) can estimate vital rates and their density dependence with little bias. When CJS-pop is applied to capture history data from Brown Creeper (Certhia americana), it provides estimates of fecundity that is expected from the breeding biology of this species. Finally, we illustrate that density dependence, even when estimated with uncertainty in the CJS-pop framework, regularizes population dynamics and reduces the frequent population extinctions and explosions observed under density-independent models. While CJS-pop as a whole is a useful addition to the current mark-recapture modelling toolbox, we argue that the independent components of this framework in estimating fecundity and density dependence can be integrated to other CJS frameworks, potentially creating models capable of population projections.

ecology