Biology subjects

Ahlering, M.

Publications and source records attributed to Ahlering, M..

4 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2024

Forecasting hotspots of grassland suitability under climate change for restoration

[bullet] Local species-climate relationships are often considered in restoration management. However, as climate change disrupts species-climate relationships, identifying factors that influence habitat suitability now and into the future for individual species, functional groups, and communities will be increasingly important for restoration. This involves identifying hotspots of community suitability to target seed sourcing and restoration efforts. [bullet]Using ensemble species distribution modeling (eSDM), we analyzed 26 grassland species commonly used in restoration to identify bioclimatic variables influencing their distributions. We predicted habitat suitability under current and future (2050) climates and identified hotspots where diverse species and functional group suitability was greatest. These hotspots of habitat suitability were then overlaid with estimates of landscape connectivity and protected status to quantify potential suitability for restoration now and into the future. [bullet]Temperature and precipitation during warmer quarters largely influenced grassland species habitat suitability. Hotspots of grassland habitat suitability were identified in Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota, with projected northward shifts under future climate scenarios. Overlaying these hotspots with estimates of landscape connectivity and protected status revealed limited connectivity and protection, highlighting regions to prioritize for restoration and conservation efforts. [bullet]Leveraging an understanding of species relationship with climate, this research emphasizes the importance of quantifying connectivity and protected status across aggregated hotspots of species suitability for conservation and restoration. Identifying these hotspots now and into the future can be used to prioritize regions for seed sourcing and restoration, ensuring long-term maintenance of functional ecosystems across grassland communities.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Environmental contributions to the evolution of trait differences in Geum triflorum: implications for restoration

Premise of the StudyUnderstanding how environment influences the distribution of trait variation across a species range has important implications for seed transfer during restoration. Heritable genetic differences associated with environment could impact fitness when transferred into new environments. Here, we test the degree to which the environment shapes the evolution and distribution of genetic effects for traits important to adaptation. MethodsIn a common garden experiment, we quantified trait differentiation for populations of Geum triflorum sourced from three distinct ecoregions and evaluated the ability of climate to predict trait variation. Populations were sourced from alvar ecoregions which experience predictable extremes in seasonal water availability and the prairie ecoregion which exhibits unpredictable changes in water availability. Key ResultsPlants sourced from alvar ecoregions exhibited smaller but more numerous stomata and greater intrinsic water use efficiency relative to prairie plant populations supporting the evolution of ecotypic differences. Estimates of standing genetic variance and heritable genetic variation for quantitative traits suggest alvar populations have greater adaptive potential. However, reduced evolvability suggest all populations of G. triflorum may have limited capacity to evolve in response to environmental change. ConclusionsThese results point towards the importance of understanding the role of environment in shaping the distribution and evolution of genetic differences across seed populations and how these data may inform recommendations for seed transfer across novel environments and our expectations of populations adaptive potential.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2021

Seed sourcing for climate-resilient grasslands: the role of seed source diversity during early restoration establishment

Restoration often advocates for the use of local seed in restoration, however increasingly new strategies have been proposed to incorporate diverse sources to maintain evolutionary potential within seed mixes. Increasing seed sources per species within a seed mix should increase genetic variation, however, few empirical studies have evaluated how seed source diversity impacts plant community composition following restoration. Thus, the goal of this research was to compare the use of single or multi-source seed mix treatments to plant community diversity following restoration. Using 14 species commonly applied in grassland restoration, we examined plant community diversity following restoration comparing seed mixes with either one or five sources per species across two restoration sites in Minnesota and South Dakota, United States. Following seeding, species establishment and abundance were recorded to calculate plant diversity for each seed mix treatment. There were no major effects of seed mix treatment on community emergence and diversity observed, with the majority of plant establishment reflecting non-seeded species. However, site-specific differences were observed. Heterogeneous land-use history associated with the Minnesota site likely contributed to differences across the restoration treatments. In contrast, community diversity at the South Dakota site was homogeneous across seed mix treatments with changes in plant community influenced solely by early season species establishment. This suggests land-use history irrespective of seed mix treatment influences establishment and persistence, particularly in the first year following restoration. Future monitoring across seasons will be needed to evaluate if community diversity changes in response to seed mix treatment.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Site wind right: Identifying low-impact wind development areas in the Central United States

To help avoid the most catastrophic effects of climate change, society needs to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century. Wind energy provides a clean, renewable source of electricity; however, improperly sited wind facilities pose known threats to wildlife populations and contribute to degradation of natural habitats. To support a rapid transition to low-carbon energy while protecting imperiled species, we identified potential low-impact areas for wind development in a 17-state region of the central U.S. By combining maps of sensitive habitats and species with wind speed and land use information, we demonstrate that there is significant potential to develop wind energy in the Great Plains while avoiding significant negative impacts to wildlife. These low-impact areas have the potential to yield approximately 1,099-1,832 GW of wind capacity. This is equivalent to 10-18 times current U.S. installed wind capacity. Our analysis demonstrates that ambitious low-carbon energy goals are achievable on sites with minimal risk of wildlife conflict.

ecology↗